The USDA lowered its forecasts for production, consumption and world corn stocks

In the October corn supply and demand balance, USDA experts, as in the previous two reports, again lowered their forecasts for world production, consumption and ending stocks, which is in line with analysts' estimates, so it did not lead to a jump in quotes.

The data for the US and the EU changed the most, while for Brazil and Argentina the estimates remained unchanged, albeit at the highest possible level, so the weather factor may still affect the production forecast.

Compared to the September estimates, the October corn balance for the 2022/23 MR underwent the following changes:

• The estimate of initial reserves was reduced by 5.13 million tons to 307 million tons (292.78 million tons in 2021/22 FY and 306.37 million tons in 2020/21 FY) due to a decrease of 2.5 million tons in the production estimate and an increase of 2.6 million tons of consumption forecast in 2021/22 MR.
• The global production forecast was reduced by 3.84 million tons to 1.1687 billion tons (1.217 billion tons in 2021/22 MR and 1.129 billion tons in 2020/21 MR), in particular for the EU - by 2.6 million tons to 56.2 million tons (70.98 million tons in FY 2021/22), the USA - by 1.26 to 352.95 (382.9) million tons. For Brazil and Argentina, estimates were left unchanged, although sowing in Argentina is delayed by drought.
• The estimate of world consumption was reduced by 5.63 million tons to 1174.55 million tons (1203.08 million tons in 2021/22 FY and 1143.29 million tons by 2020/21 FY), in particular for Ukraine - by 2 to 10.7 (11.4) million tons, the EU - by 0.7 to 76.1 (82.9) million tons due to a reduction in feed consumption.
• The global export forecast has been reduced by 0.5 million tons to 183.04 million tons, which will be 10.9% lower than the 202.9 million tons exported in FY 2021/22. The export estimate for the USA was reduced by 3.18 million tons to 54.6 million tons (62.8 million tons in 2021/22 MR and 69.78 million tons in 2020/21 MR), but increased for Ukraine by 2.5 million t to 15 million tons (27 million tons and 23.86 million tons).
• The estimate of world imports was increased by 0.7 million tons to 178.96 million tons (181.8 million tons in 2021/22 MR), in particular for the EU - by 1 to 20 (20) million tons, the USA - by 0.6 to 1.27 (0.6) million tons. For China, the import forecast was left at the level of 18 million tons, although the MSG of the country estimates imports at 22 million tons, and domestic production at 275.3 million tons, which is up 1.3 million tons exceeds the USDA forecast.
• The forecast of ending stocks was reduced by 3.34 million tons to 301.19 million tons (307 million tons in 2021/22 FY and 293.29 million tons in 2020/21 FY), in particular for the USA - by 1.18 to 29.77 (38.73 and 31.36) million tons, Ukraine – by 1.5 to 9.87 (4.57) million tons, China – by 1 to 206.22 (209.24) million tons.

Despite the "bullish" nature of the report, corn quotes slightly decreased:

• December futures in Chicago - by 0.2% to $272.2/t (0% for the month, +17.4% for two months),
• November futures on Paris Euronext – by 0.1% to €340.25/t or $330/t (+1.1% for the month, +10.7% for two months),
• November futures in Chicago rose by 0.1% to $293.75/t (-9.8% for the month).