The USDA has raised its consumption forecast and lowered its estimate of global corn stocks

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The war halted grain exports from Ukraine, which shocked world grain markets, especially corn, as the export forecast for Ukraine, one of the world's largest suppliers of corn, fell by 6 million tons to 27.5 million tons.

In a March report, USDA experts downgraded the forecast of initial and final stocks of corn due to increased consumption, as well as raised the forecast of world production, although lowered estimates for Argentina.

Compared to February estimates, the new balance on corn for 2021/22 MY has undergone the following changes:

• The forecast of world production increased by 0.79 million tons to 1206.14 million tons (1123 million tons in 2020/21 MY), in particular for India - by 2.5 to 32.5 (31.6) million tons, Russia - by 0.2 to 15.2 (13.8) million tons. However, estimates were reduced for Argentina - by 1 million tons to 53 (51.5) million tons, South Africa - by 0.7 to 16.3 (16.9) million tons and Ukraine - by 0.1 to 41.9 (30.3) million tons. For Brazil, the estimated harvest was left at 114 million tons (87 million tons in 2020/21 MY), although analysts expected to reduce it to 112-113 million tons
• The estimate of world consumption was increased by 1.45 million tons to 1,196.62 million tons (1,137.37 million tons in 2020/21 MY).
• The forecast of world exports was reduced by 3.77 million tons to 199.9 million tons (181.76 million tons in 2020/21 MY), in particular for Ukraine - by 6 million tons to 27.5 (23.8) million tons, which will be offset by an increase in exports from the US by 1.9 million tons to 63.5 (68.5) million tons. For Brazil and Argentina, estimates, as in January and February, remained at 43 and 39 million tons (19 and 39, 5 million tu 2020/21 MR) respectively.
• The estimate of world imports was reduced by 2.54 million tons to 185.63 million tons due to reduced supplies from Ukraine to North Africa. For China and the EU, the estimates remained unchanged, although the pace of imports is lower than last year.
• The forecast of the world's final reserves was reduced by 1.3 million tons to 300.97 million tons (291.45 million tons in 2020/21 MY), in particular for the United States - by 2.5 million tons to 36.6 (31.3) million tons, Argentina - by 1.4 to 1.03 (1.02) million tons, South Africa - by 0.95 to 2.33 (3.1) million tons, while for Ukraine the estimate was increased by 2.9 million tons up to 4.3 (0.8) million tons, and for India - by 0.9 to 2 (2.1) million tons.

After the suspension of exports from Ukraine, the demand for corn in the United States increased, to which May futures responded by growing by 3% to $ 297.5 / t, adding 16.8% of the price for the month. At the same time, May futures for Black Sea corn increased by 1.1% to $ 367.5 / t (+ 27.6% for the month).

Argentine corn will hit the market in March, which will meet the needs of buyers in the near future, especially given the increase in corn supplies from the United States.

Between February 25 and March 3, US corn exports rose to 2.143 million tons and actual shipments to 1.763 million tons. However, total seasonal exports are only 43% of the USDA forecast.