UCAB lowered the wheat harvest forecast for Ukraine, and MARS raised estimates for the Russian Federation

World grain markets remain under the pressure of uncertainty with the harvest of the new season, so expert forecasts become speculative factors influencing quotations.

The Ukrainian Agribusiness Club (UKAB) has published forecasts for the harvest of grain and oil crops in Ukraine, which are significantly worse than official estimates.

According to UCAB forecasts, the harvest of grain crops will decrease compared to 2022 from 53 to 42.5 million tons due to the reduction of sowing areas. In particular, wheat production will amount to 16.3 million tons (USDA estimates it at 17.5 million tons), corn - 21.1 million tons (USDA forecast 24.5 million tons), barley - 4.2 million tons.

At the same time, UKAB experts expect an increase in the harvest of oil crops to 18.9 million tons, in particular, sunflower - up to 12.2 million tons, soybeans - up to 3.8 million tons, rapeseed - up to 2.9 million tons.

Such a harvest will fully satisfy the domestic needs of the country and ensure the export potential of grain and oil crops in the range of 43 million tons, - said the UKAB.

The European monitoring service MARS in a report on June 26 estimated the wheat harvest in the Russian Federation in 2023 at 86.7 million tons, which would be 17% less than the record in 2022, 4% higher than the 5-year average, and 1.7 million tons will exceed the 85 million tons predicted by the USDA in June. It is expected that the winter wheat harvest will decrease compared to 2022 by 15% to 62.6 million tons, and the spring wheat harvest by 20% to 24 million tons.

According to the MARS forecast, barley production in the Russian Federation in 2023 will decrease by 11% compared to the previous year to 20.4 million tons, in particular spring barley - by 14% to 17 million tons, while the winter crop will grow by 13% to 3, 4 million tons

The corn harvest, according to MARS estimates, will be 15.2 million tons, which will exceed last year's level by 1% and the 5-year average by 9%.

Favorable weather in most of the European territory of the Russian Federation allows us to hope for a high yield of winter cereals, while difficult weather conditions in the east of the country will negatively affect the yield of spring crops.