In the new season, Ukraine will be able to export no more than 2 million tons of barley
In 2022/23 MR, as of April 27, Ukraine exported 2.428 million tons of barley, which is 60% less than the previous season's figure of 5.688 million tons. Almost 43% of this volume, or 989 thousand tons, was shipped through the grain corridor. In April, 152,000 tons of barley were exported (25,000 tons in April 2022), but export rates remain low amid weak demand.
The main buyers of Ukrainian barley in the current season were Turkey (535.8 thousand tons), Romania (530.9 thousand tons) and Spain (428.6 thousand tons), which together bought 66% of the volume exported from Ukraine.
Experts believe that in the case of stabilization of the grain corridor and the establishment of export of agricultural products through western codes, Ukraine will be able to export 2.5 million tons of barley in 2022/23 MR, which will be 57% inferior to the indicator of 2021/22 MR.
According to the forecast of the Ministry of Agrarian Policy, in 2023 the production of barley will decrease compared to 2022 from 5.6 to 4.8 million tons due to a decrease in the sowing area. However, this forecast is too optimistic, since due to unfavorable autumn weather, the area sown with winter barley decreased by 20% to 536 thousand hectares, and as of spring, on April 20, only 557.4 thousand hectares were sown out of the planned 1,041 thousand hectares (compared to 742,000 hectares 9 thousand hectares in 2022 and 1059 thousand hectares in 2021).
The optimal time for sowing spring barley in Ukraine has already passed, and low prices make it uninteresting for producers, so the area of spring barley sowing will not exceed 650 thousand hectares, and the total production of barley in 2023 will be approximately 4 million tons. Export of barley in 2023/24 MR will decrease to 1.5-2 million tons due to high transitional reserves, which will amount to 1-1.5 million tons.
Purchase prices for barley remain at a low level of $130-160/t with delivery to Danube or Black Sea ports. Traders have hardly bought fodder barley since the beginning of April, as they do not expect the continuation of the grain corridor, and deliveries to Turkey will also stop after the introduction of the import duty on May 1.
The malting barley market is gradually recovering. Malt factories are being launched after 2-3 months of downtime caused by the winter shelling of the Russian energy infrastructure. Against the backdrop of increased demand, prices for high-quality brewing barley rose to UAH 8,000-8,700/t with delivery to the factory.
In the coming season, demand for malting barley will remain high, which will support the prices of feed barley, which will become scarce due to the reduced harvest.
