Traders are watching the weather in Argentina and Ukraine, which will determine the fate of the crop in the coming weeks

Over the weekend, rains and thunderstorms passed in Argentina , and during the week forecasters expect two more fronts that will bring heavy precipitation. They could reduce stress on soybean and corn crops, but local analysts have already cut production forecasts significantly due to the drought.

In a new report, experts at the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange (BAGE) lowered their 2022/23 corn harvest forecast in Argentina from 50 to 44.5 million tons amid severe drought and delayed planting. As of January 18, 88.6% of the planned areas were sown with corn, compared to 96% last year.

In Ukraine , as of January 19, 24.4 million tons of corn were threshed from 3.7 million hectares or 87% of the area with a yield of 6.61 tons/ha. Dry and frosty weather in the next 7-10 days will allow sowing to be accelerated, and in the western and northern regions to complete it. A warm winter with precipitation favors the wintering of winter wheat crops, and frosts below 4-6 degrees are not predicted in the next two weeks.

Rains in southern Brazil over the weekend eased drought conditions in the state of Rio Grande do Sul and will improve corn and soybean grain fill. According to Deral monitoring data, in the state of Paraná, which also suffers from a lack of rainfall, as of January 16, 80% of soybeans were in good condition (the same as a week ago) and 15 (16)% were in satisfactory condition. The state is expected to harvest 21.47 million tons of soybeans in FY 2022/23, which is 78% more than last year.

Temperatures are above normal in the US , and a front with precipitation passed through the Midwest over the weekend. Rainfall will continue this week, which will improve moisture reserves in winter wheat fields. The US Central and Southern Plains will also receive showers that will reduce drought conditions, especially in the Southwest region, and improve the condition of wheat crops.

In most of the European territory of the Russian Federation, the weather favors the wintering of grain crops, and the recent severe frosts did not damage crops covered by a high layer of snow.