The pace of soybean exports from Ukraine in 2023/24 MR is 33% higher than last year

According to preliminary data of the State Customs Service, in December 2023, Ukraine exported 436,000 tons of soybeans, which is inferior to the record figure in November (528,000 tons), but is 22% higher than in December 2022, reports http://shareuapotential.com .

In general, in 2023/24 FY, soybean exports from Ukraine amounted to 1.6 million tons, compared to 1.2 million tons for the same period last year. In the calendar year 2023, the export of Ukrainian soybeans amounted to 3.5 million tons, while in 2022 - 2 million tons, and in 2021 - only 1.1 million tons.

The reason for the increase in exports was the increase in the soybean harvest compared to 2022 from 3.7 million tons to a record 4.8 million tons (which exceeded the previous record of 4.5 million tons in 2018) and the high profitability of growing this crop, thanks to which producers willingly sold it, restraining the sale of other agricultural crops.

Despite relatively low initial stocks in FY 2023/24, soybean exports will remain at 3.1 million, matching the record high of FY 202/23, which was achieved thanks to significant early-season stocks.

The volume of soybean processing in 2023/24 MR is estimated at 1.5-1.6 million tons.

Soy processing products are also exported quite briskly. The export of soybean oil in December amounted to 26,000 tons, and in general in 2023/24 MR - 108,000 tons (86,000 tons for the same period last year). In FY 2022/23, Ukraine exported 277,000 tons of soybean oil (an average of 23,000 tons per month), which required 1.4-1.5 million tons of soybeans. The export of soybean meal from September to December increased compared to the corresponding period last year from 158 to 260 thousand tons.

The increase in purchase prices for soybeans in Ukraine stopped at the level of $450-460/t to 18,000-19,000 UAH/t with delivery to the port and 17,500-18,000 UAH/t with delivery to the factory. An increase in the dollar exchange rate from UAH 36.5 to UAH 38/$ will lead to an increase in hryvnia prices and the attractiveness of export supplies, while the dollar price has no potential for growth due to the active export of soybeans from South America, the prices of which are falling against the background of improving weather conditions.