Demand prices for barley remain low, despite another decrease in the global production forecast

In the September report, USDA experts reduced the forecast of world barley production by 0.75 million tons to 141.9 million tons (151.7 million tons in FY 2022/23), in particular for Canada - by 1.2 to 8 million tons, while increased the harvest estimate for the Russian Federation by 0.4 to 19.5 (21.5) million tons.

The forecast for the world export of barley in 2023/24 MR was reduced by 0.1 to 26.4 (29.9) million tons, in particular for Canada - by 0.3 to 2.3 million tons, but increased for the Russian Federation - by 0.2 up to 4.7 (4.5) million tons.

The estimate of the world final stocks of barley was reduced by 0.2 to 17.4 (19.2) million tons, which will be significantly lower than the 5-year average.

Forecasts for Ukraine remained unchanged. This year, the country collected 5.8 million tons of barley (compared to 5.5 million tons last year), of which 2.5 million tons can be exported, as in the previous season.

In 2023/24 MR, as of September 8, Ukraine exported 528,000 tons of barley (447,000 tons on this date last year), but the blocking of Black Sea ports and supplies to neighboring EU countries will not allow to increase exports in the near future.

Purchase prices for fodder barley remain at a low level of $135-140/t for deliveries to Danube ports. Prices for malting barley have also declined as export demand for it is virtually non-existent and processors have reduced or stopped purchases as they have built up sufficient stocks of the raw material.