Barley prices froze in anticipation of increased demand

Purchase prices for barley in Ukrainian ports after reaching 2 260/ton stabilized at 2 245-250/ton or UAH 7300-7500/ton against the background of lower demand from exporters who purchased the volumes needed for August – September. As a result, manufacturers have reduced sales, and traders are in no hurry to raise prices in anticipation of new tenders.

The decline in the forecast of global barley production compared to last year by 10 million tons has not yet affected prices and has not increased demand for Ukrainian barley.

Forecasts of a good barley harvest in Ukraine are confirmed. As of August 19, 10.03 million tons of barley were threshed from 99% of the area with a yield of 4.1 t/ha (3.54 t/ha in 2020), which will allow exporting more than 6 million tons.

Due to the high harvest in the southern regions and low prices at the beginning of the season, Ukraine actively exports barley, and as of August 25, it has already shipped 2.164 million tons in my 2021/22, which is 256 thousand tons higher than last year's pace.

The reduction in barley production in the main exporting countries-Russia and Canada – may increase demand for domestic barley in the near future.

In Russia, out of 6.2 million hectares or 76% of the area, 15.3 million tons of barley were threshed with a yield of 2.48 t/ha. The harvest forecast remains at 19 million tons, which is 1.6 million tons lower than last year's figure.

On August 30, Statistics Canada will release an updated forecast for barley production, which will be lower than the USDA forecast in August of 8.8 million tons, although last year the barley harvest was 10.74 million tons.

The state agency of Turkey TMO at the tender on August 20 purchased 270 thousand tons of barley with delivery in September at a price of 2 284.8-293.9/ton of C&F, which is 6.61-13.9 $/ton of C&F higher than at the tender on August 3.

Tunisia today will hold a tender for the purchase of 100 thousand tons of barley, which will become a new price indicator for the market.