Barley prices in Ukraine remain under pressure from low demand
Ukraine and Russia continues to actively collect winter barley.
As of 10 July from 84.8% of the area harvested 3,048 million tonnes of winter barley with a yield of 3.58 t/ha (in 2018 is 3.4 t/ha), and with 19.1% of the area collected 752 thousand tons of spring barley with a yield of 2.63 t/ha (2018 – 1,84 t/ha). Higher than last year, yield will allow this season to collect 8.5 million tons of barley.
the Increase in barley production in the EU and Australia by a decline in demand from major importing countries have reduced the world price of barley to 190-195 $/t CFR compared to the level of 230-250 $/t CFR. Prices for black sea barley of the new harvest dropped to 165-175 $/t FOB, in particular in Ukraine, in the port for it offer 160-165 $/t or 5100-5150 UAH/t
According to the USDA forecast Canberra, Australia will increase in comparison with the previous season's barley production by 10.8% to 9.2 million tonnes, and its export – 11% to 5 million tons.
China is the main buyer of Australian barley, increases the demand for Ukrainian barley, because it can not solve trade disputes with Australia.
China's Purchase of a 1.3-1.5 million tons of Ukrainian barley of the new harvest was significantly supported prices, because premium-certified for export to China barley rose to $6-8/t. However, the large import volume with a decline in the number of pigs resulted in a surplus of barley on the market and cancellation of transactions.
Reduction in demand for Ukrainian barley from China will lead to a drop and so low procurement prices for producers are in no hurry to sell the products, because I remember last year a few weeks the price of barley has increased from 20-25 $/t
Russia is only the beginning of the harvest of barley and, as of July 10 from 798,4 thousand hectares harvested 3.1 million tons with a yield of 3.83 t/ha (2018 – 3.6 t/ha).
Due to the good condition of spring barley production forecast for Russia increased to 18-19. 5 million tons, compared with 17 million tons last season.
the price of Russian barley dropped to 165 $/t FOB, in the near future will significantly put pressure on the price of Ukrainian barley.