Soybean prices fell below the psychological level of $12/bushel and hit a 2-year low

Active soybean harvesting in Brazil and forecasts of favorable rainfall in South America are improving the outlook for the soybean and corn harvests, putting pressure on stock prices.

Soybean prices in Chicago fell to a 2-year low yesterday on forecasts of rain in the main agricultural regions of Brazil and Argentina.

According to the SAFRAS&Mercado agency, as of January 26, soybeans were harvested on 9% of the area in Brazil (4% last year), and first-harvest corn - on 15.3% of the 3.97 million hectares sown (12% last year).

March soybean futures on the Chicago Stock Exchange fell another 1.3% to $439/t yesterday (-3.9% for the week, -6.8% for the month, -13.9% for the year) under pressure low export rates from the USA.

According to the USDA, soybean exports from the USA during January 19-25 amounted to 890,000 tons, which is 54% lower than the corresponding indicator of 2023, and in general in the season reached 27.666 million tons, which is 22% lower than last year's pace.

Heat in Argentina this week could support soybean prices. According to the BAGE exchange, 98% of the planned areas are sown with soybeans in Argentina, from which 52.5 million tons of soybeans can be harvested. But against the background of dry weather, the number of soybeans in poor condition rose from 2 to 8% in a week, and in good or excellent condition decreased to 44%. Hot weather will prevail for another 7-10 days, which will negatively affect the future harvest of soybeans and corn.

In Ukraine, export prices for soybeans with delivery to Black Sea ports fell in line with world prices to $430-440/t or UAH 18,500-18,600/t, which allowed processors to lower prices to UAH 17,000-17,500/t with delivery to the factory.