Soy and corn prices fell 2.3% and 5.9% on forecasts of US rainfall and weak export rates

After a long speculative rally, U.S. soybean and corn prices ended the week lower on forecasts of a wave of rain in the U.S. Corn Belt. At the same time, the prices for the new harvest fell more strongly, although they grew faster last week.

On the exchange in Chicago on Friday, futures will fall in price:

• July soybean futures - by 0.4% to $549.1/t (+1.7% for the week, +11.5% for the month),
• November soybean futures - by 2.3% to $481.3/t (-2.3% and +10.5%),
• July corn futures - by 5% to $248.3/t (-1.4% and +4.3%),
• December corn futures - by 5.9% to $231.5/t (-1.7% and +9.3%).

Meteorologists predict that two cyclones will bring rain to the central regions of the US corn belt this week, but the heat will remain at the level of 31-33 oC, which will negatively affect the condition of soybean and corn crops.

Today, the USDA will release a report on the status of US crops, which will also have a significant impact on the market.

According to the Commitment of Traders report, traders are increasing the number of long soybean and corn contracts because they understand that if the weather conditions worsen, the prices of the new crop grain will approach the level of the prices of soybeans and corn of the old crop.

Export sales of old-crop soybeans from the USA for the week of June 9-15 amounted to 457.5 thousand tons, and in total for the season reached 52.11 million tons, out of the USDA forecast of 54.4 million tons. At the same time, export sales of old-crop corn amounted to only 36 thousand tons , and in total in the season reached 38.65 million tons of USDA forecasted 43.8 million tons.

The cancellation of previously concluded contracts for corn puts pressure on prices, and indicates an increase in the interest of buyers in cheaper Brazilian corn.

Increased rainfall intensity in the EU, Ukraine and the US in the coming weeks could turn soybean and corn quotes lower, but for now, speculative price growth continues pending the US final acreage report, which will be released on June 30.