Soybean prices have risen sharply as a result of flooding in southern Brazil
Floods in southern Brazil have led to a significant speculative increase in soybean prices, although even in the case of a loss of 1-2 million tons of soybeans, the total harvest in the country will decrease by a maximum of 1%.
Long rains in the state of Rio Grande do Sul delay harvesting and lead to floods, as a result of which the soybean harvest may decrease by 1-2 million tons to 19-20 million tons. - May 2 - by 10%), while in general, 95% of soybean crops were threshed in the country.
StoneX left its forecast for Brazil's 2023/24 soybean crop at 150.8 million tonnes, while raising its forecast for corn production by 1.4 million tonnes to 125.55 million tonnes due to increased plantings.
On the exchange in Chicago, July soybean futures yesterday rose by 2.8% to $458.8/t (+5.7% for the week, +4.5% for the month), and November - by only 1.6 % to $448.2/t (+3.3% for the week, +2.8% for the month) against the background of favorable weather and high sowing rates in the USA. Prices are supported by the increase in soybean meal prices due to delayed deliveries from Argentina.
According to USDA's NASS, 25% of planned soybean acreage was planted in the US as of May 5 (30% last year, 21% 5-year average), while traders expected 29%.
FAS USDA experts predict that Argentina will harvest 49.5 million tons of soybeans in 2023/24 FY, and in 2024/25 FY, thanks to the increase in the sowing area, production will increase to 51 million tons. We will remind that in April USDA estimated the soybean harvest at 50 million tons According to the forecast, the export of soybean meal in 2023/24 MR and 2024/25 MR will grow to 27 million tons against the background of increasing production and processing of soybeans to 40 million tons, which will sharply increase the supply of soybean meal in the near future.
It will be recalled that Argentina is the world's largest exporter of soybean meal and oil, has significant processing capacity and a well-developed industrial and export infrastructure, especially along the Parana River.
