Prices for new crop sunflowers are falling as harvest speeds up
Dry and hot weather in the southern regions of Ukraine allowed the start of harvesting of sunflowers, whose harvest forecasts are increasing thanks to favorable conditions for the development of crops. In the next 10-15 days, the heat with little precipitation will accelerate harvesting and increase supply, which will lead to a seasonal decrease in prices to the level of 12,000-13,000 hryvnias/t with delivery to the plant against the background of blocking the export of sunflower oil and meal through the Black Sea ports.
EU countries neighboring Ukraine are likely to extend the ban on sunflower supplies after September 15, which will reduce export demand for it, although active demand from the EU supported purchase prices at a high level last year.
Prices for vegetable oils remain at stable levels:
- palm oil - $850-900/t,
- soybean - $1100-1300/t,
- sunflower - $900-930/t with delivery to buyers.
A seasonal increase in the supply of new-crop rapeseed and sunflower oil will increase pressure on prices, which will remain under pressure from low demand from processors in October-November. Only the lifting of the ban on sunflower deliveries to Romania and Bulgaria will be able to support the quotation.
According to Oil World (Germany), EU countries exported a record 963,000 tonnes of sunflower oil from October to June 2022/23, which exceeded the 2021/22 figure by 369,000 tonnes. During April-June 2023, 318,000 tons of oil, mainly of Romanian and Bulgarian production, were exported, including 104,000 tons to Iraq, 28,000 tons to India, 31,000 tons to Morocco, and 26,000 tons to South Africa.
At the same time, in the 2022/23 FY, EU countries significantly increased their export of rapeseed oil compared to the previous season - from 249 to 562 thousand tons, of which 151 thousand tons were delivered to China, 177 thousand tons to Norway, and 12 thousand tons to Pakistan.
