Rape prices in Ukraine fall as stocks run out and traders switch to the new crop

Purchase prices for rapeseed in Ukraine at the end of FY 2023/24 have started to fall against the background of low demand, as only a few traders are buying up the trial lots due to be shipped in April-May. At the same time, traders are actively contracting rapeseed of the new crop with delivery to Black Sea ports.

Currently, Black Sea ports are offering $380/t or UAH 17,000/t for rapeseed, and despite the rapid appreciation of the dollar, traders refuse to raise prices.

Against the backdrop of the unblocking of the border with Poland, the demand for truck deliveries of rapeseed to the EU has increased, and buyers have raised prices by $5-10/t to $450-470/t with delivery to Germany and the Czech Republic, but sales volumes are very low.

In 2023/24, Ukraine exported 3.62 million tons of rapeseed, including 120,000 tons in April, and the rate of export is slowing down.

Traders are contracting new crop rapeseed for delivery to Black Sea ports at a price of $390-400/t, which corresponds to the maximum price level of the previous season. The Ministry of Agrarian Policy predicts a rapeseed harvest of 4.1 million tons in 2024.

May rapeseed futures on the MATIF exchange fell 3.3% to €441.75/t in two sessions under pressure from reduced demand and large inventories at European processors. At the same time, August new-harvest rapeseed futures fell just 0.3% to €459.5/t (+0.5% for the month) or $491/t as they are supported by forecasts of a reduced EU harvest in 2024.

Fears that cold weather with excessive rainfall and frost in parts of France, Germany and Poland could negatively affect rapeseed and grain crops led to a speculative rise in quotes on Monday.

Compared to the March estimates, the MARS agency increased the forecast of the average yield of rapeseed in the EU in 2024 from 3.25 t/ha to 3.26 t/ha, which will exceed the 2023 figure by 2% and partially compensate for the reduction in sowing areas. The wheat yield forecast was increased from 5.91 to 5.93 t/ha (2% more than in 2023), and winter barley - from 5.95 to 5.97 t/ha (1% less than in 2023).

Favorable weather in Ukraine, Europe and Australia increases the pressure on quotes for the new canola crop, especially since after the high world harvests of 88 million tons in 2022/23 MR and 2023/24 MR, the USDA expects the harvest in 2024/25 MR at the same level.

Against the background of lower demand for soybeans in China, a large soybean harvest this season and forecasts of an increase in canola next season, oilseeds quotes will be under pressure from overproduction.