Rapeseed prices will not change significantly in the near future
Russia's withdrawal from the grain agreement will not significantly affect rapeseed prices in Ukraine, since the main volumes were exported in August - October, and the remaining batches will be exported without problems through the western borders to the EU. Speculative growth of rapeseed quotations on the European exchange to the highest since August 657 €/t is caused by the expiration of the November contracts.
However, February rapeseed futures on the Paris exchange rose only €2/t last week to €638.75/t, matching the level of three weeks ago.
Against the background of high oil and gas costs, the EU is increasing biofuel production, which supports rapeseed prices, but a drop in natural gas prices below the level of $1,000/m3 will soon reduce demand for biofuels.
Vegetable oil markets remain under pressure from low palm oil prices, pushed down by buoyant exports from Indonesia and Malaysia. Good weather in South America is supporting soybean planting, adding pressure to soybean and canola prices.
On the Winnipeg exchange, November canola futures fell to CAD 909.1/t, or $668/t, on Friday after last week's speculative gain of 3.8%, for a total gain of 1% for the week and a three-week gain of 4, 5%, while January futures fell 1.8% for the week to CAD 863/t or $633/t, losing 1.5% in three weeks.
According to Statistics Canada, local farmers will harvest 19.1 million tonnes of canola, of which 8.7 million tonnes will be exported. Farmers are hoping for a resumption of purchases from China, which imported 4 million tonnes of Canadian canola a year before the political disputes began.
According to Canadian analysts, last year the difference between canola and soybean prices reached a record $450/t, although it is usually $50-100/t, but now it is in the range of $150-200/t, and China usually buys canola , when the price difference does not exceed $150/t.
Australia's near-record canola harvest in November and December will increase global supply, putting upward pressure on prices in the near term.
