Prices for wheat in Ukraine are increasing, despite the decrease in world quotations

After a sharp rise in world wheat prices by 6.2-11.2% over the past two weeks, traders started to take profits and quotes fell by 0.6-2.3%. The market is affected by weather factors: frosts in Europe and the USA, as well as favorable weather for sowing.

July futures for new harvest wheat fell yesterday:

• by 2.3% to $223.6/t – for soft winter SRW-wheat in Chicago (+3.6% for the week, +7.3% for two weeks),
• by 0.6% to $239/t - for hard winter HRW wheat in Kansas City (+8%, +11.6%),
• by 2.3% to €230/t or $246.2/t – September wheat futures on the Paris Euronext (+3.1%, +6.2%).

At the same time, futures for HRS durum wheat in Minneapolis rose by 0.6% to $261/t (+7.2%, +10.2%).

According to the NASS USDA, in the USA, the number of winter wheat crops in good or excellent condition during April 21-27 decreased by 1% to 49% (28% last year), and spring wheat has already been planted to 34% of the planned area (10% last year and 19% on average for 5 years).

The export of wheat from the USA for April 19-25 increased compared to the previous week by 6.85% to 481.2 thousand tons, and in general in the season reached 16.921 million tons, which is 7.32% lower than last year's pace.

FranceAgriMer monitoring showed that in France the number of soft wheat crops in good or excellent condition decreased by 1% for the week to 63% (94% last year), the worst figure in the last 4 years.

In Ukraine, against the background of rising export prices, processors also significantly raised their purchase prices, as the demand for flour increased on the eve of Easter. Export prices for fodder wheat increased by 100-200 UAH/t to 7,000-7,300 UAH/t or $160-165/t during the week, and for food - only by 50-100 UAH/t to 7,800-7,950 UAH/t or $175-178/t with delivery to Black Sea ports. At the same time, processors increased the prices of 2nd and 3rd class wheat by 200-400 UAH/t to 7300-7800 UAH/t with delivery to the mill.

Forecasted precipitation and cooling in the USA, Ukraine and the Russian Federation, as well as a decrease in the intensity of rains in Europe, will have a favorable effect on the sowing of spring and winter crops, which, against the background of significant temporary stocks of wheat in the EU and the Russian Federation, will increase the pressure on the prices of the new crop, which are currently at 5- 20 $/t exceed the prices of the old harvest.