Oil prices rose by another 3% against the background of reduced stocks in the US and damage to a terminal in the Russian Federation

After a speculative increase in oil prices on January 22 by 2%, the market expected a correction, but data on a significant reduction in oil reserves in the United States and a new attack by Ukrainian drones on a Russian oil refinery terminal led to an increase in quotations by another 3%.

Severe frosts in the US last week reduced production and increased oil consumption, leading to a significant reduction in inventories. During January 13-19, US oil production decreased by 7.5% to 12.3 million barrels per day, although it reached a record 13.3 million barrels per day in the previous week. According to Baker Hughes, the number of active oil rigs in the US for January 13-19 decreased to 497 compared to 620 a year ago. Oil stocks in the US decreased by 9 million barrels, which is 6 times higher than analysts' forecasts, reaching the lowest level since October.

The Russian oil terminal on the Baltic Sea, which supplied a third of Russian oil exports, will stop for at least 2 months after an attack by Ukrainian drones on January 21. On Thursday, Ukrainian UAVs hit an oil refinery in Tuapse on the Black Sea coast. Damage by Ukrainian drones to several Russian oil processing and storage facilities in recent weeks may lead to a reduction in oil supplies from the Russian Federation.

March Brent crude oil futures rose by 3% yesterday to a 2-month high of $82.4/barrel (+8.4% since the beginning of January).

Economic news from the US was better than expected yesterday, boosting energy demand forecasts and boosting oil prices. In the 4th quarter, US GDP grew by 3.3% year-on-year, against expectations of 2%. New orders for capital goods, excluding aircraft and spare parts, a measure of capital spending, rose 0.3% in December from November, against a forecast of 0.1%.

The increase in oil prices is mainly speculative, since the USA will quickly resume production, and the terminals in the Russian Federation do not have significant damage. Economic data from China is still negative for the oil market. Palm and soybean oil prices, as well as canola and canola prices, have barely reacted to higher oil prices, as demand for biodiesel remains very low.