Corn prices in Ukraine remain under the pressure of lower global quotations

In Ukraine, corn prices for delivery to Black Sea ports during the week remained stable at UAH 6,550-6,600/t or $150-152/t, although demand from China is decreasing and the supply of Argentine grain is increasing. The seasonal reduction in offers from producers during the sowing period supports purchase prices.

Corn exports for April 1-8 totaled 961,000 tons (479,000 tons for the same period last year), and the season total reached 19.72 million tons, out of the USDA forecast of 24.5 million tons, which is 15.9% lower than last year's pace. We will remind that in 2022/23 MR the forecast was 27.12 million tons.

On the Chicago Stock Exchange, corn rose on forecasts of a cut in U.S. plantings, but fell in recent days in anticipation of a new report from the USDA, which may revise down production forecasts for Brazil and Argentina.

Yesterday May corn futures in Chicago fell 1% to $169.8/t (+1% for the week, -2.5% for the month) amid lower oil prices and expectations of an increase in US corn inventories.

According to the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange (BAGE), in Argentina as of April 5, 7.36 thousand tons of corn were harvested from 11.1% of the area with an average yield of 9.26 tons/ha, which is a high indicator for the initial stage of harvesting. At the same time, during the week, the number of corn crops in good or excellent condition decreased from 22 to 17%, in normal condition - from 53% to 51%, while in bad or very bad condition it increased from 25% to 32%. Exchange experts lowered the forecast for the country's corn harvest by 4.5 million tons to 52 million tons, while the USDA estimated it at 56 million tons in March.

In Brazil, favorable weather prevails in the main regions for the cultivation of second-crop corn, and even in the state of Parana, rains have passed. Analysts expect the USDA to lower its corn crop forecast by 1.4 million tons from March's estimate of 122 million tons, but the forecast could be adjusted closer to the end of harvest as timely planting and intermittent rains help crops grow.

According to NASS, 3% of planned corn acreage was planted in the U.S. as of April 5 (2% 5-year average), and warm weather and precipitation forecasts will accelerate next week's planting.

Favorable weather may allow farmers to plant more corn acreage than the USDA predicts, again adding pressure to quotes.