Corn prices in Ukraine remain under the pressure of falling global quotations

Last week, corn prices in Ukraine fell against the background of a decrease in export demand and global quotations.

Purchase prices in the Black Sea ports fell by another $4-5/t to $144-150/t, but hryvnia prices rose by UAH 50-100/t to UAH 6,050-6,200/t against the backdrop of sales restraint by producers.

Farmers mostly sold soybeans and wheat, prices of which also fell, but by as much as corn and sunflowers.

World corn quotes are falling in anticipation of the new USDA report, from which analysts do not expect significant changes.

March corn futures on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange fell 2.2% for the week to $171/t (-37% year-to-date), the lowest level since November 2021.

Prices are also being pressured by high rates of second-crop corn planting in Brazil amid favorable weather. According to the AgRural agency, as of February 1, 27% of the planned area (+11% for the week) was sown with second-crop corn in Brazil, which is a week ahead of last year's pace. Active sowing will reduce the risk that crops in the pouring phase will be affected by the dry weather in May-June. Corn of the first harvest has already been threshed on 14% of the area (9% last year).

Analysts expect USDA experts to cut Brazil's corn crop forecast by 2.7 to 124.3 million tonnes in a February report (from 137 million tonnes last year), but that may not happen as the USDA only adjusts its estimates if there is confirmation of production cuts . Also, the market expects that despite the dry and hot weather in Argentina during the last three weeks, the USDA harvest forecast in the country will remain at 55 million tons (34 million tons last year).

In the coming days, rains will pass in Argentina and Brazil, which will reduce the impact of drought on corn crops.

Meanwhile, the US is increasing its corn exports, and as of February 1, it has already shipped 16.3 million tons of grain, which is 30% ahead of last year's pace.

According to the EIA's weekly report, ethanol production recovered to 1 million barrels per day after the frost, as a result of which its reserves increased by 509 thousand barrels to 24.779 million barrels.