Fertilizer prices remain under pressure as US gas prices fall to lowest since 1995

Natural gas prices fell to their lowest level since 1995 amid near-record production, large storage inventories and forecasts of reduced demand due to warmer weather. During the month, thanks to increased supply and weak demand, US gas prices fell by 50%.

In December, gas production in 48 US states reached a record 105.5 billion cubic feet per day. And gas reserves as of February 9 exceeded the average 5-year seasonal indicator by 15.9%. Even if individual companies cut back on drilling amid falling prices, gas production will still rise thanks to high oil prices, as associated gas production increases as oil production increases in shale basins.

As of February 12, gas storages in Europe are 67% full, while the 5-year average for this period is 51%.

The US Climate Prediction Center predicts that temperatures in the Northern Hemisphere will exceed normal by March amid the El Nino phenomenon, which will increase pressure on gas prices.

According to Infoindustry, in January, Ukraine imported 132,100 tons of fertilizers, which is higher than last year's figure. But there were signs of market depression: world prices for some nitrogen-phosphorus fertilizers fell, farmers bought less fertilizer than expected, and imports were delayed at customs, where product inspections were intensified.

The volumes of import of the main types of fertilizers were:

• N – 88,206 thousand tons,
• NP – 19,734 thousand tons,
• NPK – 19,212 thousand tons,
• P – 2.79 thousand tons,
• K – 1,683 thousand tons,
• PK – 0.53 thousand tons,
• In total - 132,154 thousand tons.

The leader in the import of nitrogen fertilizers was the little-known company LLC Yunex Solyushn, which imported products through the port of Orlivka. Also, the TOP-10 suppliers of nitrogen fertilizers included:

• UAPG, LLC,
• Tigos-VKF, LLC,
• Caspit Trade, LLC,
• Financial Technology Company, LLC,
• Makosh Mineral, LLC,
• Pribis, LLC,
• Binfield, LLC,
• Kearfield, LLC,
• Belor of Ukraine, LLC.

Most of the importers on the list bought cheap ammonium sulfate in Asia.

The TOP-10 suppliers of phosphorus fertilizers include:

• G-trade, LLC,
• Balance Agro Center, LLC,
• Tigos-VKF, LLC,
• Agrochemical Technology, LLC,
• Yugekotop, LLC,
• Makosh Mineral, LLC,
• Kvadrat-NKV, LLC,
• Elixir Ukraine, LLC,
• Himagro, LLC,
• Trixa, LLC.

The main importers of three-component NPK fertilizers were:

• Agrosem, LLC,
• Agrochemical Technology, LLC,
• Elixir Ukraine, LLC,
• Makosh Mineral, LLC,
• Arta-Himgroup, LLC,
• Agrokhimresurs, LLC,
• VVM Trading, LLC,
• Binfield, LLC,
• Firma Eridon, LLC,
• Field Farm, LLC.

The volumes of potash and phosphorus-potassium fertilizers were very low, and the main importers were already well-known companies:

• Kraft Mineral,
• Biofert, LLC,
• Agrarian Palette, LLC,
• VVM Trading, LLC,
• Fertiagro, LLC,
• PMTZ Indenerny Center Reagent,
• Air Travel, LLC,
• TD Agrokhimprom, LLC,
• Galit, LLC,
• Agrochemical Technology Co., Ltd.

In 2024, the domestic market of potash fertilizers will experience changes associated with the exit of players from the EU and a decrease in prices for potassium chloride. This will increase competition, although it will not significantly reduce fertilizer prices. In FY 2023/24, the share of RK fertilizers will decrease due to the high cost, while potash prices have already dropped from $700-800/t to $500-520/t DAP, which will allow Ukraine to intensify imports of cheap and high-quality potash fertilizers.