Global soybean prices are falling as supplies from South America increase, but demand in Ukraine remains high

Soybean futures in the US continue to fall in price against the backdrop of high sowing rates and increasing supplies from Brazil to the world market, in particular to the US. Yesterday on the Chicago exchange, July soybean futures fell by 0.7% to $515.9/t (-5% for the month), and November - by 0.3% to $459.6/t (-5 1% per month). According to the USDA, as of May 7, 35% of planned acreage was planted to soybeans in the US, compared to 11% last year and 21% on average over 5 years. This means that farmers can significantly increase soybean acreage this season, especially with spring wheat planting too slow. Analysts expect that in the May report, USDA experts will lower the soybean production forecast for Argentina from 27 to 24.36 million tons and raise that for Brazil from 154 to 154.86 million tons, as a result of which ending stocks in FY 2022/23 will decrease by 1 million tons to 99 million tons, and the world balance will deteriorate. In Ukraine, despite the drop in rapeseed and sunflower prices to UAH 14,000-15,000/t with delivery to the factory, purchase prices for soybeans with GMOs remain at a high level of UAH 16,700-17,800 with delivery to the factory thanks to the increase in meal prices from exporters. while oil prices continue to fall. Thanks to stable export demand for soybeans, prices at Danube ports remain at $460-475/t for delivery to Rennes or Izmail, while asking prices from European buyers are €400-450/t for delivery to EU countries. During the period May 1-7, compared to the previous week, the EU countries increased soybean imports by 72% to 365,073 tons, and in general, since the beginning of the season, purchased 10.66 million tons of soybeans, which is 11% less than last year's figure, the European Commission reports. Almost 46% of purchased soybeans were delivered from the USA, 33% - from Brazil, 11% - from Ukraine. According to the forecasts of ANEC experts, Brazil will export 12.1 million tons of soybeans in May, which will be 1.8 million tons lower than in April, but will exceed the 10.3 million tons shipped in May 2022. If the forecast is achieved, total soybean exports from Brazil in 2023 will reach 49.93 million tons, while in the first 5 months of 2022 it amounted to 45.19 million tons. The main buyer of Brazilian soybeans is China, which purchased 73% of the volume exported in January-April. Also in May, Brazil plans to export 2.2 million tons of soybean meal, compared to 1.7 million tons in April and 1.9 million tons in May 2023.