World corn prices are falling, but in Ukraine they continue to rise

Against the background of increased shipments from all Black Sea terminals and unhindered entry of ships to ports, the purchase prices for corn in Ukraine continue to rise, but still remain the lowest on the world market. However, further price growth will limit the decline in global quotations.

During the week, demand prices for corn rose by $5/t to $148-152/t or UAH 5,850-6,000/t with delivery to Black Sea ports and $156-160/t or UAH 6,100-6,200/t with delivery to ports Danube Producers have stepped up sales, but heavy snowfall in the south of the country has halted trucking, forcing traders to raise prices to ensure ships are loaded in the near future.

Ukraine exported 2.13 million tons of corn in November, which almost corresponds to 2.25 million tons in November 2022. But in general, only 5.94 million tons of corn were exported in the season, compared to 9.3 million tons during this period last year.

Pressure on global corn prices is increasing due to improved weather in Brazil and Argentina. December corn futures on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange fell 3.8% for the week to a 3-year low of $177.7/t (-6% for the month), while March futures traded at $186.4/t (-4.2% for the month) supported by the speculative weather factor in Brazil.

March corn futures in Paris fell 4% during the week to €197.75/t or $217.5/t (-4.8% for the month).

According to the USDA, corn exports from the USA for November 16-23 decreased compared to the previous week by 32.3% to a season low of 406.7 thousand tons, and in general in 2023/24 MR reached 7.267 million tons, which is 25% ahead of last year's pace. To reach the USDA forecast of 52.7 million tons by the end of the season, it is necessary to ship 1.13 million tons of corn every week, which is unrealistic to do against the background of low demand from China.

In the central part of Brazil, there is still a deficit of precipitation, which is holding back the development of soybean crops. This could push back the timing of second-crop corn planting and negatively impact its yield, as well as lead to an increase in demand in the second half of the season.

Corn prices for delivery to Asian countries are $240-260/t C&F. Thus, the South Korean animal feed producer Nonghyup Feed Inc (NOFI) purchased at a tender 132 thousand tons of feed corn, presumably produced in the USA and South America, at a price of $255.35-262.49/t C&F with delivery in February 2024.