A significant decrease in the forecast of corn harvest and stocks in the USDA report led to an increase in prices by 2.5-3.5%

In the August balance sheet, USDA experts lowered their forecast compared to July estimates world-class production corn in 2021/22 MG by 8.68 million tons to 1186.12 million tons (1115.1 million tons in 2020/21 MG) due to a sharp reduction in production in the United States by 10.53 million tons to 374.68 million tons (360.2 million tons in 2020) due to low yields, although analysts estimated it at 380 million tons.

The market was surprised by the decline in the forecast of corn production for the EU by 1.2 million tons to 65.5 million tons (64.47 million tons in 2020), while the European Commission in early August raised its production forecast by 2.2 million tons to 72.8 million tons, and the 2020 harvest was estimated at 65.1 million tons.

It is expected that the increase in the corn crop in Ukraine by 1.5 million tons to 39 million tons and in Russia by 1.1 million tons to 16.5 million tons will partially compensate for its reduction in the United States and the EU.

Forecast global consumption corn was reduced by 1.23 million tons to 1182.24 million tons, which is 41.32 million tons higher than in my 2020/21.

Rating world exports corn was reduced by 1 million tons to 197.85 million tons due to a sharp decrease in the forecast of exports from the United States by 2.54 million tons to 60.96 million tons (70.5 million tons in 2020/21 MG), which partially compensates for the increase in sales from Ukraine by 1.5 million tons to 32 million tons (23.5 million tons in 2020/21 mg) and Russia by 0.6 million tons to 5.2 million tons (3.1 million tons). The forecast of corn imports to China and the EU was left unchanged.

Forecast global final reserves corn in my 2021/22 was reduced by 6.55 million tons to 284.63 million tons, which is 3.88 million tons higher than the current season, although analysts estimated them at 289.6 million tons.

For Brazil, the forecast for corn production in 2020/21 MG was reduced by 6 million tons to 87 million tons, as expected by analysts, and the export estimate was reduced by 5 million tons to 23 million tons (35.2 million tons in 2019/20 MG).

Against the background of a larger-than-expected decline in production and inventory forecasts, corn prices at the Chicago SWOT rose by 2.5-3.5% yesterday, in particular:

• December American corn futures-up 2.5% to 2 225.6 / ton,
• October futures for Black Sea corn – by 3.46% to 2 269/ton.

November European corn futures on the Paris Stock Exchange rose 2.5% to 2 260.37/ton.

Uncertainty about the corn harvest in the new season remains, so as the harvest approaches, we will see an adjustment of estimates for the United States, the EU and Ukraine, although now the weather mainly contributes to the development of crops.