Strategie Grains has again lowered its forecasts for the harvest of grain crops in the EU

According to the Reuters agency, Strategie Grains experts, against the background of difficult weather conditions, again lowered the forecasts for the production of wheat, barley and corn in the EU in 2023/24 MR.

Thus, compared to previous estimates, production forecasts have been reduced:

• soft wheat - by 2.5 million tons to 126.2 million tons (+1% to the indicator of 2022/23 MR),
• barley - by 0.8 million tons to 47.1 million tons (-8% from the indicator of 2022/23 MR),
• of corn - by 0.4 million tons to 60.8 million tons (+17% compared to the indicator of 2022/23 MR).

Wheat and barley are being harvested in Europe, with preliminary data indicating "catastrophically" low yields in Spain and very low yields in southeastern Europe, which experts attribute to excessive rainfall in the spring.

Spring barley has been affected by drought, particularly in northern Europe, while the maize crop may decline if heavy rains do not pass in July. Yield prospects in France and central Europe are somewhat better.

At the same time, Strategie Grains reduced the forecast for the export of soft wheat from the EU in 2023/24 MR from 31.4 to 30.1 million tons, and adjusted the export forecast for 2022/23 MR from 31.8 to 30.5 million tons.

The outlook for exports is weighed down by uncompetitive wheat prices in France and uncertainty over supplies to China, which may cut feed wheat imports amid poor quality of its own crop due to heavy rains.