Speculative growth in soybean oil quotes is supporting soybean and canola prices

Yesterday's speculative 4.5% rise in soybean oil prices on the Chicago Stock Exchange supported soybeans and canola.

August soybean futures rose 1.9% to $534.8/t (-1% for the week), and November futures rose 2.1% to $494.4/t (-0.6%) after according to the growth of August soybean oil futures by 4.5% to $1,438/t (+2.5%) and December - by 4.3% to $1,340/t (+1.1%) against the background of rising palm oil prices oil

But a deteriorating U.S. soybean crop, sluggish exports and forecasts of more rain this week will halt speculative gains in quotes and increase pressure on the soybean market.

According to NASS USDA, the number of soybeans in good or excellent condition for the week increased by 1% to 51% (62% last year), with the most in the Northeast.

From June 30 to July 6, the export of soybeans from the USA decreased by 10% compared to the previous week to 238,000 tons, and in total in the season reached 49.67 million tons, which is 5% lower than last year's pace.

On the exchange in Paris, August rapeseed futures yesterday rose by 2.3% to €450/t or $495.9/t (-2.2% for the week), and November - by 2.2% to 459, €25/t (-1.2%), but prices remain under pressure from increased supply.

On the physical market, the discount relative to November quotations on MATIF increased from -40 €/t to -60 €/t against the background of increased offers from Ukraine and Eastern Europe. EU rapeseed production forecasts are down, but soybean and sunflower crop prospects remain good.

Asking prices for 40% oil rapeseed deliveries in September-October remain at €415-425/t DAP Germany (port) and €420-430/t DAP Germany (factory), while CIF Romania (port) for oiliness 43% offer 380-390 €/t.

On the Winnipeg exchange, November canola futures yesterday rose 3% to CAD 782/t or $590/t (+6.2% for the week). The expansion of sowing areas and favorable weather will increase the yield, so the volume of canola offers will increase significantly in the fall. Statistics Canada estimates canola production at 18.4 million tons, which will provide exports of 8.4-9 million tons and domestic processing needs of 9.5-10 million tons.

In Australia, rains are improving the outlook for the canola crop, so the market will remain under pressure from increased supply and forecasts of a large global crop in the coming months.

In Ukraine, rapeseed purchase prices rose to $340-350/t or UAH 13,600-14,300/t with delivery to Danube ports, but against the backdrop of increased supply, traders will limit price increases.