Heat wave in Russia and rain in Europe keep wheat prices from falling seasonally

This year, delayed harvesting in Europe due to precipitation and restraining sales by producers due to lower harvest forecasts for Russia kept wheat prices from falling seasonally.

Proserno experts lowered the forecast for the wheat harvest in Russia from 77.6 to 77.1 million tons, and earlier SovEcon reduced its estimate from 82.3 to 76.4 million tons, and Icarus – from 81.5 to 78.5 million tons. In the south of Russia and the Volga region, the heat wave is 30-35 ^OhC and prolonged lack of precipitation reduces the potential of spring wheat, corn and sunflower crops.

• On the Chicago Stock Exchange, August Black Sea wheat futures fell again by 1 1.25/ton to.266.5/ton, but December futures rose by 0 0.75/ton to. 289/ton.

Precipitation forecasts in the western United States and favorable weather in the "corn-soybean belt" increase pressure on soybean and corn prices, which also affects the wheat market.

Export sales of wheat from the United States for the week fell by 67% to 308 thousand tons (605 thousand tons a year ago), which indicates low export demand for expensive American wheat. Actual exports for the week increased by 12% to 387.1 thousand tons, and in general in the season amounted to 3.116 million tons, which is 69% lower than last year's pace.

September US futures fell:

• by 1 1.65 / ton to Чикаго 261.6/ton for soft winter SRW wheat in Chicago,
• by 1 1.1 / ton to H 253.9/ton for hard winter HRW wheat in Kansas City,
• by 0 0.3/ton to.331.8 / ton for hard spring HRS wheat in Minneapolis.

Heavy rains in France, Germany and Poland delay wheat harvesting and worsen its quality. The German Farmers ' Association lowered its forecast for the wheat harvest from 22.82 to 21 million tons.

• September wheat flour futures for MATIF rose 0.75 €/t to 225 €/t or 2 266 / t.

Australia actively exports wheat, and in June it shipped a record 2.8 million tons over the past 11 years. and since October, exports have reached 18.5 million tons out of the USDA forecast for 2020/21 mg of 19.5 million tons.

In Ukraine, purchase prices for food wheat after reaching a maximum of 7500-7600 UAH/ton or 246-248 $/ton for deliveries to the Port yesterday decreased by 100-150 UAH/ton to 7350-7400 UAH/ton against the background of increased sales and fulfillment of contracts by exporters for the coming months.

The volume of wheat supply may increase after updating data on the harvest in Russia and the EU.