The heat in India and Brazil reduces the potential for future harvests
Traders' attention is focused on weather conditions in India, Brazil and Pakistan, where the heat reduces the potential of the harvest, while in the United States in the regions where winter wheat is grown, it will finally rain.
In central Brazil, second-harvest maize crops continue to decline due to the early start of the dry season and rising temperatures to 30-33 o C. The state of Mato Grosso recorded the strongest rainfall deficit in 17 years, with only 30 in April % of the 10-year average. No significant precipitation is expected during the next week, only in the southern regions there will be showers that will improve the condition of corn and winter wheat crops.
Abnormal heat prevails in India and Pakistan. In March, India recorded the highest temperature since 1901, and this month was the second hottest in 120 years, and April may be a record hot. During the week the temperature will rise sharply and in some places will reach 50 oC. According to the Indian Meteorological Department (IMD), in March - April the amount of precipitation was 25-30% of normal. Heat and drought could reduce the country's wheat harvest by 10-15%, exacerbating the food crisis sparked by Russia's military aggression against Ukraine.
Winter wheat crops in the Black Sea countries, including Ukraine and Russia, are in good condition, but rain and cold weather are delaying the sowing of spring crops. In Ukraine, sowing in the eastern and southern regions is hampered by hostilities and minefields, while in other regions there are problems with fuel. According to the Ministry of Agrarian Policy, as of April 25, 3.6 million hectares or 25% of the forecast, which is only 75% of last year, have been sown. Thus, 9% of the area was sown with corn (20% last year), 17% with sunflower, which is twice less than last year.
In the United States, the weather is cold and humid, which in the Midwest delays the sowing of spring crops, soybeans and corn, and in the Southern Plains reduces droughts and improves the condition of wheat crops. Next week the downpours will delay sowing again.
