Record export sales supported us wheat prices

After a sharp drop in prices for American wheat, demand for it increased as the cheapest on the world market, which led to increased export sales and an increase in stock prices.

Australia is completing wheat harvesting, which is already estimated at 34-35 million tons, while the USDA in December estimated it at 33 million tons. IKON raised its forecast for grain exports from Australia in 2021/22 MG to a record 40.4 million tons, which is 9% higher than last year's figure and 53% higher than the 10 - year average. The forecast for wheat exports was increased to 27 million tons (24 million tons in 2020/21 MG), although the USDA in December estimated it at 25.5 million tons. Australian wheat will have high competitiveness throughout 2021/22 MG until October and will limit the supply of Black Sea wheat to Asia in July – August.

Filipino processors purchased 110 thousand tons of feed wheat at a tender for delivery in March – May at a price of 3 325/ton C&F.

IHS Markit lowered its forecast for wheat sowing areas in the United States from 49.373 to 48.603 million acres, including winter wheat – by 360 thousand acres to 34.033 million acres and spring wheat – by 300 thousand acres to 12.72 million acres (11.4 million acres in the previous season).

Export sales of wheat from the United States for the week of December 3-9 increased to the largest in the season of 650.6 thousand tons, with expert expectations of 200-400 thousand tons, which led to higher prices.

Actual wheat exports for the week increased by 28% to 274.4 thousand tons, and in general in the season reached 10.314 million tons, which is 22% lower than last year's pace. To reach the projected USDA 22.8 million tons, it is necessary to ship 520 thousand tons of wheat every week.

March futures on US exchanges recovered somewhat after the fall and Rose:

• by 5 5.33 / ton to Чикаго 283.1/ton for soft winter SRW wheat in Chicago,
• by 6 6.8 / ton to H 295.3/ton for hard winter HRW wheat in Kansas City,
• by 6 6.43/ton to.377.3 / ton for hard spring HRS wheat in Minneapolis.

The European Union exported 13.11 million tons in my 2021/22 as of December 12, which is 8.7% higher than last year's pace. However, this does not include data on exports from France, which traders estimate at 1 million tons. the export forecast for the EU is 37 million tons, and to achieve it, you need to ship 820 thousand tons every week, while last week only 85 thousand tons were exported.

• March European wheat futures on Paris Euronext rose 0.25 €/t yesterday to 276 €/t or 3 313/t, while May futures fell 0.5 €/T to 273 €/t or.309.6/T, which corresponds to the level of the end of October.

On December 15, the Iranian GTC agency purchased 500 thousand tons of food wheat mainly produced in Russia, Germany and the Baltic countries at a price of 365-368 €/ton or 414-417 € /ton with shipment in January – February, which supported prices for European and Black Sea wheat.

March futures for Black Sea wheat on the Chicago Stock Exchange yesterday rose by 1 1.25/ton to 3 333/ton.