Wheat quotations for the week increased by 1.4-2.3% against the background of a decrease in crop forecasts in the EU

Wheat prices on global exchanges remain under pressure from low demand and large inventories, but active purchases of futures by funds last week and a reduction in EU crop forecasts supported prices, which had previously fallen by 5-6%.

The experts of Refinitiv Commodities Research reduced the forecast of soft wheat production in the EU in 2024/25 MR by 1.3 to 123.2 million tons (125.8 million tons last year) and durum wheat – by 0.2 to 7.5 million tons (7.5 million tons last year). The correction of the forecasts is caused by a decrease in official estimates of wheat sowing areas in France.

At the same time, an increase in the intensity of precipitation in most of Europe improves soil moisture and prospects for the European wheat harvest.

On Friday, March wheat futures fell:

• by 1.7% to $210.7/t - for soft winter SRW wheat in Chicago (+2.3% for the week),
• by 0.9% to $209/t - for HRW hard winter wheat in Kansas City (+0.3%).
• by 1.5% to $235.7/t - for hard spring HRS-wheat in Minneapolis (+2%).
• by 0.7% to €206/t or $222.8/t - wheat futures on Paris Euronext (+1.4%).

Rainfall forecasts in all winter wheat growing regions in the US and the EU are also putting pressure on prices.

Today's USDA report is likely to show an improvement in the condition of the US wheat crop.

On the physical market, prices are falling against the backdrop of a 12.5% decline in prices for Russian wheat with protein to $218-224/t FOB, which is the lowest level since September 2020. Favorable weather for winter wheat crops in the Russian Federation and the weakening of the state government are putting pressure on prices price control.

Following Russian grain, French wheat with a protein content of 11% fell in price to $220-224/t FOB, which is $21-25/t lower than the price level at the beginning of January.

The Directorate of Food Products of Bangladesh ((DGF) has completed the acceptance of applications for participation in the international tender for the purchase of 50 thousand tons of milled wheat of arbitrary origin.

Wheat offers from the following companies were submitted to the tender:

• Grainflower – $279.95/t (for a batch of Russian wheat),
• Cereal Crops – $285/t,
• MC Food - $288.18/t,
• Agrocorp - $288.39/t,
• Aditya Birla – $297.6/t.