Wheat quotations fell by 3.2-6.2%, despite the growth of exports and the deterioration of the state of crops in the US
Speculative jumps in the prices of wheat and other agricultural products related to news from the Black Sea region continue on world markets. Yesterday it became known that under the cover of an American anti-submarine aircraft, three ships are heading to the Danube ports of Ukraine, while another 16 ships are standing at the entrance to the Ukrainian mouth of the Danube. Based on this information, quotations for wheat, soybeans and corn fell by 3.2-6%, although already after the closing of the stock exchanges, they began to grow on the basis of data on the state of crops in the USA and the activation of exports.
Yesterday, September futures fell:
- by 6.1% to $244.6/t - for soft winter SRW wheat in Chicago,
- by 5.7% to $298.6/t - for hard winter HRW wheat in Kansas City,
- by 4.9% to $314.4/t - for hard spring HRS-wheat in Minneapolis,
- by 0.3% to $240.25/t - for Black Sea wheat in Chicago,
- by 3.2% to €240/t or $263.7/t - for wheat on the Paris Euronext.
According to the NASS USDA Weekly Report, as of July 30, U.S. winter wheat was 80% harvested, in line with the 5-year average of 83%, and spring wheat harvest has already begun. Due to dry and hot weather last week, the number of spring wheat planted in good or excellent condition for the week decreased by 7% to 42% (70% last year).
By the end of the week, spring wheat growing regions are expected to experience rain and lower temperatures, but this will not improve crop condition and yield potential.
During the period of July 21-27, the export of wheat from the USA increased by 60% compared to the previous week to 581.3 thousand tons, and in general in the season it amounted to 2.74 million tons, which is only 4.8% less than last year's pace.
Wheat prices rose last week amid shelling of Ukrainian ports, but at the end of the week traders started to take profits and prices fell to the level of the previous week, adding a total of 5-10% for the month. Traders are currently awaiting harvest data in the Northern Hemisphere.
Thanks to the blocking of exports from Ukraine, the Russian Federation was able to export a record 4.54 million tons of wheat in July, which is 1.5 times higher than in July 2022. Compared to the same period last year, Saudi Arabia doubled its purchase of Russian wheat to 578 thousand tons, Egypt - by 10% to 467 thousand tons, Israel - by 2.3 times to 345 thousand tons, while Turkey reduced its purchase by 22% to 518 thousand tons.
Russian wheat prices with 12.5% protein increased to $240/t FOB, and as a result of the tariff reduction, demand prices for wheat in the central and southwestern region increased from $135-140/t to $150-160/t FCA, then as in Ukraine they are $120-130/t FCA.
