Dry and frosty weather in Russia and Ukraine, as well as good precipitation in South America, remain the main weather factors affecting prices

Past precipitation on the territory of Ukraine and the south-western part of Russia over the past week was lower than expected, as it did not particularly reduce the state of drought on winter crops, although it contributed to the emergence of late crops. Lowering the temperature to minus 3-5 degrees at night and plus 3-5 degrees during the day will stop the development of winter crops, and some of them will enter the winter in a weak state. This increases pressure on the prices of Black Sea wheat, which is now the most expensive on the world market, especially after Russia's decision to introduce export quotas from the beginning of 2022.

Dry and frosty weather continues to contribute to the end of corn harvesting, helping to reduce grain moisture, especially at high drying prices due to rising gas prices.

In Ukraine, as of November 5, 95% of sunflower and soybeans were harvested, and corn was harvested on 61% of the area, and in the absence of precipitation (as the weather forecast predicts) in the next two weeks, corn harvesting will also be completed. As of November 8, winter crops were sown on 94% of the projected areas, or 7.3 million hectares, including 6.2 million hectares of winter wheat, or 94% of the forecast.

In Russia, sunflower harvesting is completed by 98%, soybeans by 95%, and corn by almost 90% of the area, and winter crops are sown by 95% of the projected area. Agrometeorological conditions for the emergence and initial development of winter crops in most areas of winter sowing in Russia were good and satisfactory, especially after the past rains (15-45 mm) and temperatures above normal. Frosts that are predicted for the near future will not harm winter crops.

In the US corn belt, favorable warm and dry weather remains for the end of soybean and corn harvesting, and periodic precipitation improves moisture reserves for winter crops. As of November 7, corn was threshed on 84% of the area, against 78% on average for 5 years, soybeans on 87% against 88%, and winter crops were sown on 91% of the area, which corresponds to the average level for 5 years. Forecasts of increased precipitation for the coming week will help improve the condition of winter crops that continue to suffer from dry conditions in the western part of the country, and increase traders ' concerns about the fate of the new wheat crop.

It is worth noting that against the background of a sharp rise in the price of wheat to the level of 3 300-350/ton, soybean prices remain at an extremely low level of about 4 445-500/ton due to good sowing conditions in Brazil and Argentina and forecasts of high yields.

 In the coming week, Daily heavy rains will continue in the central part of Brazil, which will increase moisture reserves and continue to improve the condition of soybean and corn crops. Earlier sowing of soybeans will allow you to get a new crop of soybeans in January-February and start sowing the second crop of corn earlier, and if there is also sufficient precipitation in January-February, which later may also cause increased pressure on World corn prices.

Over the past week, heavy rains have taken place in Argentina, which have improved the condition of crops, and scattered precipitation is again forecast for the next week, which will speed up the sowing of soybeans and corn.

In the eastern part of Australia, heavy precipitation continues, which improves the condition of crops, but also hinders the harvesting of wheat and canola.

Forecasts for Australia's second-largest wheat harvest continue, and the arrival of a new crop in the near future may help cool the soaring global wheat prices a little.