Despite increased production forecasts, rapeseed prices continue to rise
In the March report, USDA experts increased the forecast of world rapeseed production in 2023/24 MR by 0.7 to 88.1 (88.82) million tons, in particular for Ukraine - by 0.1 to 4.4 million tons, Russia - by 0 ,1 to 4.2 million tons, India - by 0.5 to 12.5 million tons. The forecast for the export of rapeseed from the Russian Federation was increased by 0.1 to 0.7 million tons, but it is unlikely to be fulfilled due to the export ban.
The authorities of the Russian Federation have extended the ban on the export of rape until August 31, 2024, in order to provide raw materials to local enterprises. Exports to the EAEU countries and deliveries by rail and road through the Transbaikal checkpoint on the border with China are not subject to the ban.
Against the background of the ban on exports from the Russian Federation, the reduction of supplies from Ukraine and the increase in canola prices in Canada, quotes for rape continue to grow.
Yesterday, May rape futures on the Paris MATIF rose by 1.8% to €430.75/t or $471/t (+3.2% for the week, +3.1% for the month).
May canola futures on the Winnipeg exchange rose 3.5% for the week to CAD 616/t or $457/t (+2.7% on the month) amid stronger exports and rising palm oil prices.
According to the Canadian Grain Commission, in FY 2023/24 as of March 3, Canada exported 3.2 million tons of canola, which is 8% higher than last year's pace. In March, USDA experts lowered the forecast for canola exports from Canada by 0.1 to 7.55 million tons due to increased processing volumes.
Prices for Canadian canola are lower than for canola in the EU, so Europe may step up its purchases if prices rise further. Ukraine almost stopped the supply of rapeseed to the EU due to the blockade of the border with Poland, so European farmers will be able to sell their stocks of rapeseed.
Demand prices for rapeseed in Ukraine remain at the level of 15,000 UAH/t FCA farm in the western regions and 16,000-16,200 UAH/t in ports, but demand and the number of buyers continue to decrease.
