The US warning about a possible Russian attack this week again weakened the hryvnia exchange rate

After a quiet previous week, when the dollar exchange rate on the interbank market stabilized at UAH 28/., from Friday it began to grow again on US statements about a possible Russian invasion of Ukraine this week.

During Friday, under pressure from political news, the dollar exchange rate rose from 27.94/27.96 to 28.04/28.06 UAH/ грн, and only the sale of 5 50 million by the National Bank stopped further growth.

From February 7 to February 11, the National Bank purchased 2 253.2 million on the interbank market and sold.50 million, while during January 31 – February 4, it purchased. 333.7 million and did not sell foreign currency, and in the period January 24-28, it sold. 759.5 million and did not buy foreign currency. Since the beginning of the year, the National Bank has sold 1 1,561.2 million and purchased. 606.9 million, so the negative balance of interventions amounted to 9 954.3 million, but it is gradually decreasing. In 2021, the National Bank sold 1 1,275.7 million on the interbank market, and acquired. 3,690. 7 million.

The dollar exchange rate on the cash market rose to UAH 28.4-28.6/. over the weekend amid panic moods, calls from many countries for their citizens to leave Ukraine and information about a large number of charter flights used by Ukrainian businessmen and oligarchs to export their families and jewelry.

Also, psychological pressure on the hryvnia is aggravated by the news about the cancellation of flights to Ukraine by certain airlines due to the refusal of insurers to guarantee payments. Therefore, yesterday the Cabinet of ministers at an urgent meeting allocated UAH 16 billion from the reserve fund for guarantees to insurance companies, which further increased the panic.

At the auction on February 8, The Ministry of Finance raised UAH 2.096 billion to the budget by selling the following government bonds::

• for a period of 3 months at 11.5% per annum in the amount of UAH 1.634 billion,
• for 1 year at 11.93% in the amount of UAH 23 million,
• for 1.5 years at 12% in the amount of UAH 23 million,
• for 2 years at 13% in the amount of UAH 69 million,
• for 3 years at 12.95% in the amount of UAH 1 million,
• for 5 years at 13.25% in the amount of UAH 1 million,
• for 2 years at 3.9% in the amount of 1 12.3 million.

According to forecasts, Ukraine stepped up exports of agricultural products in February, which increased the volume of foreign exchange earnings. According to the State Customs Service, in January, revenues from the export of domestic sunflower oil increased by 70% compared to January 2021 to 8 830 million, which accounted for 14% of the total export revenue. Grain exports in January increased 2.2 times, the average price – by 25%, and revenue – by 2.7 times to 1 1.56 billion, which accounted for 26% of the total amount of export earnings. In the structure of grain exports, the largest share was corn – 4.5 million tons or 1 1.12 billion. Among other product groups, it is worth noting the export of poultry meat, which increased from 3 36 million to. 81 million compared to January 2021.