After the publication of the USDA report Black Sea wheat rose in price by another 4%
Experts expected that after a two-week increase in prices for Black Sea wheat, they would react to the USDA report with a decline. However, USDA experts once again surprised the market by sharply lowering the forecast for the wheat harvest in Russia,which, given the expected reduction in production in Canada and the United States,led to a significant decrease in the forecast for the global harvest, as a result of which wheat prices rose by another 3-4.5%.
Black Sea wheat futures rose the most in Chicago:
- September-by 9 9.25 / ton to 3 300.25 / ton,
- December-by 1 11.5/ton to 3 315.75 / ton.
September US futures rose:
- by 9 9.73 / ton to Чикаго 276.7/ton for soft winter SRW wheat in Chicago,
- by 1 10.47 / ton to H 271.2/ton for hard winter HRW wheat in Kansas City,
- by 7 7.25 / ton to.342.5 / ton for hard spring HRS wheat in Minneapolis.
On MATIF in Paris, September wheat flour futures rose by 9.25 €/t to 245.75 €/t or 2 288.38/t, while December futures rose by 9 €/T to 248.75 €/t or.291.9/t.
Compared to the July report, USDA experts lowered their forecast in the New Balance Sheet global wheat production in 2021/22 MG by 15.49 million tons to 776.91 million tons (775.84 million tons in 2020/21 and 763.5 million tons in 2019/20 MG) due to a sharp decrease in the estimate of the harvest in Russia by 12.5 million tons to 72.5 million tons, which is significantly lower than the forecasts of local agencies (76-79 million tons) and the Ministry of Agriculture of the Russian Federation (81 million tons). Due to the drought, crop forecasts for Canada were lowered by 7.5 million tons to 24 million tons (35.18 million tons in 2020), the United States - by 1.34 million tons to 46.18 million tons and Kazakhstan – by 0.5 million tons to 12.5 million tons. At the same time, wheat production forecasts in Ukraine were raised by 3 million tons to 33 million tons, Australia – by 1.5 million tons to 30 million tons and the EU-by 0.4 million tons to 138.6 million tons, which partially compensates for the decrease in the harvest in other countries.
Forecast global wheat consumption in the new season, it was reduced by 4.22 million tons to 786.67 million tons (784.71 million tons in 2020/21 and 748.33 million tons in 2019/20 MG) due to a reduction in wheat consumption for Feed against the background of increased corn production.
Taking into account the decrease in initial inventory and production, the assessment global final reserves in 2021/22 MG, it was reduced by 12.62 million tons to 279.1 million tons (288.8 million tons in 2020/21 and 299.22 million tons in 2019/20 MG), although analysts estimated them at 288 million tons.
Forecast World Trade wheat decreased by 5.7 million tons to 198.2 million tons due to a decrease in the export estimate for Canada by 5.5 million tons to 17.5 million tons, Russia – by 5 million tons to 35 million tons, which will be partially offset by an increase in M exports from Ukraine by 2.5 million tons to 23.5 million tons, Australia – by 1.5 million tons to 22 million tons and the EU – by 1 million tons to 35 million tons. 2020/21 mg.
