Increase in forecasts for the production of vegetable oils in 2023/24 MR lowers stock market quotations

In the May report, USDA experts released the balance sheet for vegetable oils for 2023/24 MY. Oil production and stocks are expected to continue to grow in the new season due to an increase in global production of soybeans, palm oil and improved conditions for olive oil production, while the increase in soybean oil stocks is partially offset by a decrease in palm oil stocks in Indonesia and sunflower oil stocks in Turkey and the Russian Federation.

According to the USDA forecast, world production of oils in FY 2023/24 will increase compared to the current season from 217.05 to 223.29 million tons, which will exceed the 207.87 million tons of the 2021/22 season by 7.5%. At the same time, the production of soybean oil will increase to 62.47 million tons (58.92 million tons in 2022/23 MR and 59.22 million tons in 2021/22 MR), palm oil - to a record 79.56 (78.14 and 72 .92) million tons, while sunflower will decrease to 20.93 (21.02 and 19.8) million tons.

World final reserves of oils in 2023/24 MR will amount to 30.59 million tons, which will exceed the indicator of 2022/23 MR by 1.8% and by 5.1% - the indicator of 2021/22 MR.

On the report, July palm oil futures on Bursa Malaysia fell 4.5% to 3,457 ringgit/t, or $780/t, yesterday, matching the level at the start of the month.

On Monday, Indonesian authorities cut the indicative price of crude palm oil for the period May 16-31 to $893.23/t, while India, the world's largest importer of edible oils, lowered its base import prices for crude palm and soybean oil.

According to surveyors, Malaysia's palm oil exports for May 1-15 increased by 4-5.2% compared to the same period in April, which increases the pressure on prices.

Yesterday on the exchange in Chicago, July futures for soybean oil fell by 4.5% to $1,046/t (-15% for the month) against the background of negative statistics on soybean processing and a sharp increase in soybean oil stocks in the United States.

According to the NOPA association, the volume of soybean processing in the US in April decreased compared to March by 6.8% to 4.71 million tons, and stocks of soybean oil increased from 840 to 888.5 thousand tons, while analysts predicted them at the level 4.74 million tons and 830 thousand tons, respectively.

Demand prices for sunflower oil remain at $850-$950/t delivered, but demand is dampened by a strong supply of cheap palm oil as many consumers prefer cheap over quality oil.