Rainfall in Argentina will improve the condition of soybean and corn crops, but will not help wheat

In the main grain exporting countries, weather conditions favor the development of crops and harvesting. Abundant rainfall in Argentina reduced the level of drought and the impact of weather factors on prices of agricultural products.

The main agrarian regions of Argentina received the long-awaited abundant precipitation of 30-100 mm, which will reduce drought conditions and promote the development of corn crops and soybean sowing planned for October. However, they will no longer affect the condition of winter wheat crops, whose harvest forecasts have already been reduced to 15.5 million tons, and by the Rossario Grain Exchange - to 13.7 million tons, compared to last year's 23 million tons. A new wave of precipitation will pass over the country over the weekend, but most of November will be dry.

In Brazil , rains continue, which favor the sowing of soybeans and corn and the development of crops. Precipitation is expected in the central and northern regions next week, adding pressure to soybean and corn prices as farmers actively sell off last year's stocks in anticipation of a record harvest. Prices for Brazilian soybean oil and meal are lower than for Argentine products, so competition between the two countries' exporters is intensifying against a backdrop of declining global demand.

In the U.S., rains in the western Midwest and Plains eased drought and improved conditions for winter wheat crops, but slowed soybean and corn harvests, which are ahead of last year's pace thanks to dry weather in September and October. Next week there will be little rain, which is favorable for wheat germination, especially in the western regions, which have been affected by a long drought and need more rain.

In Australia , wheat-growing regions have experienced heavy rains, which may reduce the quality of grain in some places, but dry weather is expected next week. Forecasts of the wheat harvest have already been increased to 32.5-33.5 million tons, which will exceed last year's 32.2 million, but will be inferior to the record 36.3 million tons of 2020.

In Ukraine in October, the weather conditions for the development of agricultural crops improved, but the uneven distribution of precipitation reduces the potential of the harvest in the current and next seasons. The lack of precipitation in the southern regions has a negative impact on the development of winter crops, and in the northern and western regions, long rains in September and October delayed the harvesting and sowing of winter crops for 2 weeks. Dry weather next week will speed up the field work.

According to the Ukrhydrometeorological center, thanks to the excessive precipitation in September, which in many regions amounted to 150-230% of the norm), the moisture reserves remain the highest for the last several years and are 1.3-2 times higher than the long-term average values.

In the central regions of Russia , heavy rains are continuing, which are delaying the harvesting of sunflower, as a result of which forecasts of its production have been reduced from 17 to 16 million tons, which will still exceed last year's 15.5 million tons thanks to the increase in the sowing area. As of October 24, sunflowers were harvested on 50% of the area, while last year on this date 3.15 million hectares more were threshed. Next week, rains will continue to delay harvesting and sowing of winter crops, so analysts are lowering the sowing forecasts.