Uncertainty over canola harvest in Canada holds back seasonal drop in rapeseed prices
The market expected a gradual decline in rapeseed prices as its harvesting increased in Europe and Ukraine, but uncertainty with the canola harvest in Canada keeps quotes from falling.
Following the collapse of oil prices yesterday, November rapeseed futures on the Euronext exchange fell by 6 €/ton, but at the end of the day they fell only by 2.25 €/ton to 540.25 €/ton or 633.88 €/ton.
Europe is accelerating rapeseed harvesting, and harvest forecasts remain at 17 million tons, as the average rapeseed yield in the EU, according to the MARS Agency, will be 3.2 t/ha, which is 2.3% higher than last year and 4.8% higher than the average 5 - year figure.
In the Canadian Prairies, rain fell over the weekend, which is unlikely to improve the condition of canola and wheat crops, but will contribute to grain filling. Next week, the country will have good weather with normal temperatures and light precipitation, which will reduce the speculative impact of the weather factor on the canola market.
Traders expect forecasts for the canola harvest in Canada from the USDA, as analysts ' estimates diverged: Oil world lowered its forecast by 1.7 million tons to 16.9 million tons, which is 2 million tons lower than last year's figure, and IGC experts reduced the forecast by 1.6 million tons to 18.8 million tons, which is 0.1 million tons higher than last year's harvest.
On the Winnipeg stock exchange, canola prices fell 0.7% to 885.6 CAD/ton or 7 705/ton, which corresponds to the level of the previous month.
In Ukraine, purchase prices for rapeseed at the end of last week increased in ports to 19500-19600 UAH/ton or 625-635 $/ton, which boosted sales. But on Monday, following the world stock exchanges, prices fell to 19200-19500 UAH/ton.
Dry weather this week will allow you to complete rapeseed harvesting, which will increase sales from producers, especially given the increase in forecasts for the sunflower harvest, forward prices for which remain on the market of 15000-15500 UAH/ton with delivery to the plant.
