Against the background of political tension, the dollar exchange rate exceeded UAH 28/курс

A possible increase in military escalation by Russia negatively affects the hryvnia exchange rate, as investors withdraw their assets from Ukraine to protect them. At the same time, non-residents ' interest in Ukrainian government bonds is falling.

Additionally, the exchange rate is under pressure from the energy crisis in Europe and a sharp rise in the price of imported gas and petroleum products, which has led to increased demand for foreign currency from importers.

Since the beginning of January, the dollar on the interbank market has risen in price by 70 kopecks to 27.99/28.01 UAH/. against the background of limited supply from exporters and high speculative demand from importers.

The National Bank reacted calmly to the fall of the hryvnia and pursued a policy of targeting the exchange rate, selling the currency on the interbank market only to limit sharp jumps in the exchange rate.

During the first business day of January, the National Bank sold ще 100 million on the interbank market, and during January 10-14, another.330.7 million, without buying back foreign currency.

Last year, the National Bank purchased 3 3.6907 billion on the interbank market, and sold.1.2757 billion, receiving a balance of interventions of. 2.415 billion.

Experts expect that this week the National Bank will increase interventions to keep the exchange rate within UAH 28/.. This will force exporters to increase sales of foreign currency earnings.

According to the NBU, as of January 14, the volume of government bonds decreased by 0.92% or UAH 9.74 billion to UAH 1.0447 trillion compared to 01.01.2022. at the same time, the volume of government bonds in banks decreased by 0.84% or UAH 4.55 billion to UAH 538.8 billion, non – residents – by 4.64% or UAH 4.24 billion to UAH 87.1 billion, legal entities-by 1.39% or UAH 1.15 billion to UAH 81.25 billion, while for individuals it increased by 0.81% or UAH 201.4 million to UAH 25.1 billion, and for the National Bank it remained at the level of UAH 312.6 billion.

Recall that in February last year, non-residents increased their portfolio of government bonds to UAH 103 billion due to attractive placement conditions and stability in Ukraine. According to experts ' forecasts, in the coming weeks, non-residents will again step up the purchase of Ukrainian government bonds, especially given the growth of the dollar exchange rate and a possible increase in yields. The next auction on January 18 will demonstrate the readiness of non-residents to invest in government bonds, which will be an additional signal for the foreign exchange market.