USDA's quarterly report on US soybean and corn crops shocked the markets

USDA's quarterly U.S. acreage and old-crop stocks reports, usually released on June 30, help traders determine balances for the new season and forecast price trends. This year, the data of the reports differed significantly from the March and June forecasts of the USDA and the average estimate of analysts, which quite shocked the market participants. Soybean prices rose 5-6% on the report, while corn fell 5-7.3%, and recent heavy rainfall in the US corn belt will add further pressure on quotes.

According to USDA's NASS, 94.096 million acres were planted to corn in the U.S. in 2023 (88.6 million acres in 2022 and 93.3 million acres in 2021), 2.1 million acres above WASDE's March and June forecast and is the third largest indicator since 1944. At the same time, analysts expected a decrease in the area of sowing to 91.85 million acres.

Soybean acreage estimates were cut from March and June estimates by 4 million acres to 83.505 million acres (87.5 million acres in 2022 and 87.2 million acres in 2021), while analysts had expected soybean acreage to increase to 87.67 million acres.

As of June 1, stocks of corn in the USA amounted to 104.3 million tons (110.4 million tons in 2022 and 104.4 million tons in 2021), and soybeans - 21.66 million tons (26.4 million tons in 2022 and 20.9 million tons in 2021), although analysts estimated them at 108 million tons and 22.1 million tons, respectively.

According to reports on the Chicago Stock Exchange, soybean futures rose in price:

• July – by 5% to $572.2/t (+4.1% for the week, +15.3% for the month),
• November - by 6.1% to $493.6/t (+2.5%, +14.3%).

At the same time, corn futures fell in price:

• July – by 5% to $218.3/t (-13.6% for the week, -8.3% for the month),
• November - by 7.3% to $194.8/t (-19.2%, -8.7%).

On Paris Euronext, November corn futures fell by €4.5/t on Friday to €227.75/t or $251.3/t (-6.8% for the week, +5.9% for month).