The hryvnia exchange rate on the interbank market will continue to strengthen in August
Last week, under the pressure of increasing currency supply, the dollar exchange rate fell from 26.95/26.97 UAH/. to 26.78/26.8 UAH/.. To slow down the strengthening of the hryvnia, the National Bank was forced to buy back.136 million during July 26-30, compared to. 32 million in the previous week. Since the beginning of the year, the dollar has fallen in price against the hryvnia by 4.9%, and the euro – by 8.1%.
Experts believe that the strengthening of the hryvnia exchange rate will continue until autumn against the background of high world prices for the main items of domestic exports (ore, metal, agricultural products), significant demand of non-residents for government bonds and an increase in foreign exchange earnings from employees. In addition, the depreciation of the dollar is facilitated by the tightening of US monetary policy in order to slow down inflation.
The volume of private currency transfers to Ukraine in June 2021 amounted to 1 1.109 billion, which is 16.2% more than a year ago. In total, in January – June 2021, України 6.205 billion was transferred to Ukraine, which is 11.6% higher than the corresponding figure in 2020–. 5.559 billion.
In 2020, the volume of transfers to Ukraine increased by.200 million to. 12.1 billion compared to the previous year. The National Bank expects that in 2021 the volume of transfers from employees will increase by another 11%.
The NBU also predicts that in 2021, Ukraine's GDP will grow by 3.8%, while consumer inflation will be 9.6% and in the second half of 2022 it will return to the target of 5%. This will be facilitated by a tightening of monetary policy, a good harvest, high world commodity prices and a reduction in the effect of the low comparative base of last year. Due to the growth of external and domestic demand, the economic recovery will continue.
Increased harvesting and good yields will increase foreign exchange earnings from the sale of agricultural products for the longest time.
