Rape quotes on the Euronext exchange continue to fall amid increased supply

In a November report, USDA experts raised the forecast for world production, consumption and exports of rapeseed for 2022/23, which increased the pressure on quotations, which collapsed by 9.3% on the Euronext exchange in two weeks.

Compared with the October report, the following changes have been made to the new rapeseed balance sheet for 2022/23 MY :

• The global production forecast was increased by 1 million tons to a record 84.816 million tons, which will exceed the 73.857 million tons collected in 2021/22 MR by 14.8%. The estimate for the EU was increased by 0.35 million tons to 19.5 (17.216) million tons , and also slightly for Australia.
• The global consumption forecast was increased by 0.49 million tons to 80.768 (75.267) million tons.
• The estimate of world ending stocks was reduced by 0.08 million tons to 7.163 (4.359) million tons due to the growth of consumption and exports.

The Oilseeds Federation of Australia has raised its forecast for the country's 2022/23 canola production to 6.75 million tonnes, surpassing the previous 2021/22 record of 6.33 million tonnes, as acreage will increase from 2.97 to 3.35 million tonnes. on, and the weather in the states of South and Western Australia will favor the development of crops.

According to the Australian Bureau of Statistics, in FY 2021/22 (October-September), the country exported a record 5.4 million tons of canola, which is 50% higher than the previous record of FY 2012/13, when exports amounted to 3.52 million tons.

• February rapeseed futures on the Paris exchange yesterday fell 2% to €614/t or $635.13/, losing 4.5% for the week and 9.2% for the two weeks.
• January canola futures on the Winnipeg exchange rose 1% yesterday to CAD 894.5/t, or $673/t, but have traded fairly flat for two weeks.

A 2% drop in oil prices since the start of the week will put upward pressure on canola and canola prices in the near term.

In Ukraine, rapeseed demand prices remain at $470-500/t for deliveries to Danube and Black Sea ports, but supply is shrinking as producers have almost sold out of their stocks.