Quotations of European corn are falling, despite forecasts of a reduction in the harvest

The global market remains under the pressure of uncertainty associated with low demand, which is not recovering even in spite of a sharp decline in crop forecasts in EU countries.

The heat in the US and the EU has almost no effect on quotations, as the market expects the new harvest to be harvested, while the remnants of the old still remain unrealized. In addition, due to rains during harvesting in the EU, Ukraine and the Russian Federation, the share of fodder wheat increases.

In addition, the market is under pressure from the intensification of corn exports from Brazil, which in August can ship 8 million tons compared to 4.3 million tons in August 2021.

Following the publication of the August USDA report, where the forecast for the corn harvest in the EU was reduced by 8 million tons to 60 million tons (70.5 million in 2021/22 MR), November corn futures on the Paris Euronext fell by 6% to 317 from Monday .5 €/t or $324.2/t (+3.9% for the month).

Traders are actively selling off contracts to lock in gains ahead of seasonal price declines, especially given the improved outlook for the US corn crop.

December corn futures on the Chicago Stock Exchange also fell 5.7% to $240/t from Monday, returning to the previous month's level.

In the US, due to lower gasoline prices, the demand for ethanol decreased, and for the week its production decreased by 39,000 barrels to 983,000 barrels/day, falling below the level of 1 million barrels/day for the first time since May. This reduces domestic demand for corn in addition to low export demand.

It is not known whether increased rainfall in Ukraine will help corn crops that have not yet matured, but it has increased pressure on prices.

October futures for Black Sea corn in Chicago fell by 2.2% to $315.5/t from Monday (-1.8% for the month).

Demand prices for Ukrainian corn in the Danube ports remain at the level of $180-185/t SRT, while in the Black Sea ports purchases have not yet resumed. The dispatch of 24 ships from the Black Sea ports of Ukraine has not yet intensified the purchasing activity of traders, who are primarily trying to take out stocks of the old harvest from the terminals.

Demand prices from the EU increased to $230-280/t DAP Moldova, Poland, Hungary and Romania against the backdrop of reduced forecasts of their own harvest.