A good harvest will allow Tunisia to reduce imports of wheat and barley

According to USDA's FAS forecast, Tunisia will harvest a large grain crop this year thanks to favorable winter weather.

Thus, in 2024/25 MR, the country will increase wheat production from 0.441 to 1.25 million tons, in particular durum wheat - from 0.427 to 1.13 million tons, barley - from 0.089 to 0.6 million tons, compared to the previous season. wheat import will decrease from 2.2 to 1.8 million tons, and barley - from 0.95 to 0.5 million tons.

Import and export of wheat and its processing products are controlled by the country's Grain Agency (ODC). Imported wheat is sold at a subsidized price, and the difference is compensated by government funds. Despite the fact that the subsidies have become very expensive for the budget, Tunisia does not yet plan to change this program or reduce imports.

The difficult economic situation in Tunisia has made it difficult for the ODC agency to import grain. In 2023/24 FY, the country received grants from international organizations (World Bank, African Development Bank, EU, etc.) for partial payment of wheat and barley imports, as it is highly dependent on imported grain. But Tunisia is looking for additional sources of financing to ensure supplies of wheat until the end of the season.

USDA FAS experts predict that Tunisia will try to maintain grain stocks at a level sufficient to ensure consumption for 1-2 months.

The Tunisian authorities, after a previous unsuccessful experience twenty years ago, decided to liberalize barley imports again to reduce the burden on the budget, so they allowed private companies to import barley. In January, the National Feed Council was established under the MSG, which will produce, purchase and distribute feed grains, including barley, in the livestock and poultry industries. But the regulatory documents, according to which the Council will work, will be ready only at the end of the 2023/24 FY.

We will remind that in 2023, the Russian Federation exported 459,700 tons of wheat to Tunisia, continuing to displace France from its traditional grain sales markets.