Chicago soybeans, corn futures fall to 3-year lows amid fund sell-off
Soybean and corn futures on the Chicago Stock Exchange fell to 3-year lows yesterday as funds sold off, while a strengthening dollar to a 3-month high is reducing the competitiveness of US products and could negatively affect US agricultural exports.
Competition in the world soybean and grain markets is intensifying against the backdrop of significant volumes of offers, so the US MSG may increase the forecast of ending stocks.
Analysts expect that the soybean acreage in the US will grow by 3.1 million acres to 86.7 million acres compared to the previous year, and corn will decrease by 3 million acres to 91.6 million acres.
March soybean futures on the Chicago Stock Exchange fell 1.4% yesterday to the lowest level since December 2020 at $430.1/t (-4.7% for the month), which is lower than the previous week's 3- annual minimum
March corn futures yesterday fell 1.6% to $167/t (-4.5% for the month), also the lowest since December 2020.
Hedge funds are holding short positions and waiting for prices to fall in markets that have each already fallen about 10% this year.
The main agrarian regions of Argentina received heavy rains the other day, which reduced the impact of a three-week drought on soybean and corn crops. According to the forecast of the Rosario Grain Exchange, the country's soybean production in 2023/24 MR will be 52 million tons, and corn - a record 59 million tons, while the USDA estimates them at 50 and 55 million tons, respectively.
According to Conab monitoring data, as of February 10, 21% of the planned 15.9 million hectares of soybeans were harvested in Brazil (15% last year), and 32% of the area was sown with second-crop corn (20% last year).
It's worth noting that according to @Lebcommodities, Dr. Cordonnier has once again lowered Brazil's soybean crop forecast by 2 to 147Mt and corn by 3 to 112Mt, while the USDA estimates them at 156Mt and 124Mt respectively.
Soybean and corn markets are likely to continue their speculative price jumps on the back of weather and harvests in South America and the start of planting in the US.
