The EU predicts a decline in rapeseed imports, but quotes remain at a high level
According to the European Commission's forecasts, in my 2021/22, the European Union will reduce rapeseed imports by 15%, which will be offset by an increase in soybean imports and processing. But the fall in rapeseed prices has stopped, and they remain at a high level, supported by rising soybean prices amid a declining harvest in South America.
The European Commission estimates that rapeseed production in the EU in my 1021/22 amounted to 17 million tons, which is 1.8% higher than in my 2020/21, as the decline in the harvest in Germany and France was offset by its growth in Romania, Bulgaria, Denmark, Poland and Lithuania. At the same time, experts of the European Commission lowered the forecast of rapeseed imports to the EU in 2021/22 mg compared to the previous season from 5.8 to 4.9 million tons against the background of reduced supplies from Canada and Australia and an increase in imports and processing of soybeans.
As of February 16, the EU imported 3.183 million tons of rapeseed, which is 38% lower than last year's pace. Soybean imports totaled 8.266 million tons, which is 11% lower than last year's pace, but it will grow in the second half of the season.
Soybean consumption in the EU in my 2021/22 is estimated by the European Commission to grow by 6.3% compared to the previous season to 21.8 million tons.
May rapeseed futures on Paris Euronext this week, following oil prices, rose by 4.25 €/t to 695.75 €/t or 7 790.9/t, but in general for the month fell by 22 €/t. at the same time, August rapeseed futures for the new crop for the month rose by 39 €/t to 616.25 €/t or 7 700.6 / t, even despite the increase in crop forecasts in the EU.
May rapeseed futures on the Winnipeg Stock Exchange remain at a high level of 1003 CAD/t or 7 790.8/t due to active exports and processing in Canada.
The growth of quotations in the neighboring soybean market will keep prices for rapeseed and rapeseed at a high level in the second half of the season.
