Exports of soybeans from Ukraine are slowing down due to restrictions on supplies to the EU and increased supply from South America

Against the backdrop of a decrease in export prices for oil crops, in particular soybeans, the demand for them in Ukraine has significantly decreased, while the demand for rapeseed and sunflower from the EU countries has practically disappeared after import restrictions.

According to "APK-Inform", due to reduced demand from Poland, Romania and other EU countries, soybean exports from Ukraine decreased to 160,000 tons in April, while in March it reached the highest level since January 2020, 417,000 tons, which is 27 % exceeded the indicator of February.

The main buyers of Ukrainian soybeans in April were Turkey (48%) and EU countries (37%). From September to March 2022/23, Ukraine exported 2.4 million tons of soybeans, which is the maximum of the last 3 seasons. Almost half of them were purchased by EU countries.

In the future, the demand for Ukrainian soybeans will remain under the pressure of external factors: restrictions on imports to EU countries, significant volumes of raw materials from European buyers, and an increase in offers of the new crop from South America.

Export prices for GMO soybeans remain at the level of $450-470/t with delivery to the ports of Reni, Izmail, while processors have reduced prices to UAH 15,500-17,000/t with delivery to the factory due to difficulties with the sale of meal and oil. There is no premium for soybeans without GMOs, and processors buy them at UAH 16,000-17,000/ton with delivery to the factory.

On the exchange in Chicago, July soybean futures yesterday fell by 1.2% to $518.4/t, and November futures fell by 0.6% to $465.6/t against the background of high soybean sowing rates in the United States.

According to the USDA, as of April 30, 19% of planned U.S. soybean acreage was planted (7% last year and 11% 5-year average as of this date), indicating an increase in soybean acreage this season.

Brazil exported 14.3 million tons of soybeans in April, but Datagro experts reduced the forecast of soybean exports from the country in 2022/23 MR by 1 million tons to 94 million tons, compared to previous estimates, which will still be a record figure and will exceed by 19% last year's exports. The reason for the decrease in the forecast was the low volume of sales by local farmers, which are inferior to last year's and average 5-year rates.