UZA experts increased the forecast for the harvest of grain and oil crops in Ukraine to 80.5 million tons

Experts of the Ukrainian Grain Association (UZA) increased the forecast for the harvest of grain and oilseed crops in Ukraine in 2023 by 3.7 million tons to 80.5 million tons, while they estimated the 2022 harvest at 73.8 million tons. Despite the reduction in the area sown on 2 million hectares, favorable weather made it possible to improve productivity and obtain a good harvest.

At the same time, grain exports in the 2023/24 MR may amount to 49 million tons compared to 58 million tons in the 2022/23 season, but only if exports through the Black Sea ports are restored and transportation via alternative routes is improved and cheaper, in particular through the Danube ports.

• Thus, the forecast for the wheat harvest in 2023 was increased from 20.2 to 22 million tons (20.2 million tons in 2022 and a record 33 million tons in 2021), and its export in 2023/24 may amount to 16 million tons. considering the transitional balances at the beginning of the season in the range of 4.4 million tons.
• The forecast for the barley harvest in 2023 was increased from 5.2 to 5.8 million tons (5.8 million tons in 2022 and 10.1 million tons in 2021), and exports in 2023/24 were estimated at 3 million tons.
• The corn harvest forecast was increased from 26.9 to 28 million tons (27.3 million tons in 2022 and 37.6 million tons in 2021), and exports were estimated at 22 million tons.
• The sunflower harvest in 2023 will amount to 13.9 million tons (11.1 and 16.9 million tons), export - 0.5 million tons, and 13.2 million tons will be sent for processing.
• The rapeseed harvest in 2023 will be 4.1 million tons, and soybeans - 4.8 million tons, while the export of these crops in 2023/24 MR will reach 4 million tons and 3.3 million tons, respectively.

In the conditions of Russia's blockade of Black Sea ports and attacks on port infrastructure, UZA continues to cooperate with the European Commission on issues of compensation to European carriers for transporting grain from Ukraine's borders to EU ports, which will make logistics cheaper for Ukrainian producers. This initiative of UZA was supported by the European association COCERAL, which also appealed to the European Commission on this matter.

It is planned to improve the carrying capacity of the Sulinsky canal by increasing the number of pilots and introducing round-the-clock operation of the canal. Together with the USA and the EU, work is underway to create anchorages in the territorial waters of Romania, where Ukrainian grain can be transshipped from barges to large ships in order to activate logistics along the Danube.

Blocking exports from Ukraine negatively affects the availability of grain on the world market. In a report to Congress, US intelligence claims that Russia's invasion of Ukraine led to disruptions in global food supplies, increased prices and food security risks in the Middle East and North Africa, and increased inflation in developed countries.

If Ukraine does not resume exports, its farmers will reorient production and stop growing grain, which will further intensify the crisis in the world food market in the medium term.