USDA experts lowered the forecast for oilseed production in the world, but raised estimates for Ukraine

In a September report, USDA experts lowered the forecast for global production of oilseeds, including soybeans in the US and canola in Canada, partially offset by an increase in sunflower and canola crops in Ukraine and canola in Australia.

Compared to the August estimates, the new oil balance for the 2023/24 MR underwent the following changes:

• The forecast of world production was reduced by 2.81 to 660.89 (629.66 million tons in 2022/23 MR), in particular, rape – by 0.89 to 85.18 (88.56) million tons, cotton – by 0.56 to 41.2 (43.3) million tons, and soybeans - by 1.06 to 401.33 (370.11) million tons due to a decrease in the soybean harvest in the USA by 1.6 million tons. The sunflower harvest forecast for Ukraine was increased by 0 .5 to 14 (12.2) million tons, while it decreased for the EU by 0.2 to 10.65 (9.2) million tons, Argentina – by 0.1 to 3.9 (5) million tons, and Turkey – by 0.05 to 1.6 (1.9) million tons. Rape yield forecast reduced for Canada (due to drought during the growing season) by 0.8 to 18.2 (18.7) million tons and for the EU – by 0.5 to 19.7 (19.6) million tons, while it increased for Ukraine by 0.2 to 4.3 (3.8) million tons and Australia – by 0.2 to 5.1 (7, 8) million tons
• The estimate of world processing was reduced by 1.79 to 539.45 (521) million tons, in particular for soybeans and cotton.
• The forecast of world final stocks was reduced by 1 to 135.61 (121.69) million tons, in particular sunflower – by 1 to 4.17 (4.92) million tons.

For Ukraine, the sunflower export forecast for 2023/24 MR has been increased by 0.15 to 0.95 million tons, while for 2022/23 MR it has been reduced by 0.125 to 1.9 million tons. Sunflower consumption in 2023/24 MR is estimated at 13, 3 million tons, and for 2022/23 MR, the estimate of consumption was increased by 0.9 to 13 million tons.

For the EU, the sunflower import forecast for 2023/24 MR is left at the level of 0.8 million tons, as it is not yet known whether Bulgaria will lift the ban on sunflower supplies from Ukraine. At the same time, for 2022/23 MR, the estimate of imports to the EU was reduced by 0.3 to 1.6 million tons due to the reduction of exports from Ukraine.

For Turkey, the sunflower import forecast for 2023/24 was left at the level of 1.2 (1.075) million tons.

The forecast for rapeseed exports was reduced for Canada by 0.5 to 7.9 million tons, but increased for Ukraine by 0.2 to 3.8 million tons and Australia – by 0.2 to 4.2 million tons.

November rapeseed and canola futures fell yesterday:

• by 4.3% to 430.5 €/t or 463 $/t (-3.9% for the month, -42% for the year) at the Paris MATIF, against the background of an increase in the harvest in Ukraine and despite a decrease in production in the EU,
• up 1.9% to CAD753/t or $555/t (-2.2% m/m, -6.2% y/y) in Winnipeg.