USDA experts significantly lowered the forecast for global production and stocks of soybeans, but prices still fell

In the USDA's July balance sheet for soybeans for 2023/24 MY, the main changes affected the USA, to which traders reacted the most, almost not paying attention to the decrease in forecasts of world production and stocks.

August soybean futures fell 1.9% to $530.7/t (+4.2% for the month), and November futures fell 2.5% to $487.9, according to a report yesterday on the Chicago Stock Exchange /t (+10.3%).

In the balance sheet for 2022/23 MR , USDA experts increased the estimate of global soybean production by 0.15 million tons to 369.7 million tons and the export forecast - by 0.44 to 168.9 million tons, in particular for Brazil - by 1 to 94 million tons t, while for the USA the forecast was reduced by 0.54 to 53.9 million tons. As a result, the forecast of ending soybean stocks was increased by 1.5 to 102.9 million tons, while analysts estimated them at 101.02 million tons.

Compared to the June report, the new balance for soybeans for 2023/24 MR underwent the following changes:

• The global production forecast was reduced to 405.31 million tons (369.72 million tons in 2022/23MR). Analysts predicted that as a result of the June drought, the yield of soybeans in the United States will decrease from 3.49 to 3.45 t/ha, so the harvest will be 115.75 million tons, but USDA experts estimated the yield at 3.46 t/ha (3.32 t /ha last year) and increased the harvest forecast by 5.71 to 117 (116.38) million tons.
• The estimate of world exports was reduced by 3.12 to 169.29 (168.93) million tons, in particular for the USA - by 3.4 to 50.35 (53.89) million tons.
• The estimate of world imports was reduced by 3.25 million tons to 166.57 (165.81) million tons due to a reduction in purchases by Egypt, Bangladesh, Pakistan, Turkey, and Thailand. For China, the estimate was reduced by 1 million tons to 99 million tons (as last year) due to transitional supplies due to increased imports in FY2022/23.
• The forecast of world ending stocks was reduced by 2.36 million tons to 120.98 million tons, which meets the expectations of analysts and significantly exceeds the reserves of the last three seasons (102.9, 99.7, 100.3 million tons).