Strategie Grains experts have sharply increased their forecast for corn production in the EU

Strategie Grains experts increased their forecast for EU corn production in my 2021/22 by 2.6 million tons compared to September estimates to 67.5 million tons (64.6 million tons in my 2020/21) due to better-than-expected yields in France, Germany, Poland, Romania and Bulgaria.

Initially, the rate of corn harvesting was significantly lower than the average annual rate, especially in the western and south-eastern EU countries, but now weather conditions in most countries contribute to field work.

As a result of the increase in the production forecast, Strategie Grains lowered its estimate of corn imports to the EU in 2021/22 MG from 14.4 to 13.9 million tons, while the USDA estimates it at 15 million tons.

According to the report, 21.8 million hectares of wheat will be sown for the 2022/23 EU harvest, which will correspond to the level of my 2021/22. At the same time, the area of barley sowing in comparison with the previous season will increase by 2% to 10.4 million hectares (winter 4.6 million hectares and spring 5.8 million hectares), while under corn they will decrease by 2% to 9.1 million hectares due to increased production costs due to the rise in the price of agricultural products and Fertilizers.

On October 21, IGC experts also increased the forecast for global corn production in 2021/22 MG by 1 million tons to 1.21 billion tons, primarily due to an increase in the estimate for the United States from 380.3 to 381.5 million tons, which corresponds to the USDA forecast.

These reports have not yet affected corn prices, but soon the pressure on quotes will increase, and a decrease in import forecasts to the EU will significantly affect corn prices in Ukraine, where a record grain harvest is expected this year, so the loss of part of the EU market will significantly change price trends.